Kazan is assigned the role of a quiet haven for friendly contacts with ASEAN leaders

ASEAN has refused to follow the policy of isolating Russia

Kazan is hosting the anniversary Russia — ASEAN Summit, timed to coincide with the 35th anniversary of the establishment of trade and economic relations with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Invitations were received by the leaders of all 11 ASEAN member countries (Brunei, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, East Timor), as well as the Secretary-General of ASEAN.

On the forum's agenda is the topic of the evolution of Russia's relations with Southeast Asian countries. “Today, ASEAN is a significant diplomatic partner for Russia, primarily due to the association's interest in the evolutionary transformation of the international relations system," states a report by the Russian Council on International Affairs.

“The Association and most of its members treat with benevolent neutrality the ideas of forming an alternative to the Western world. Despite pressure from the US and the West, ASEAN-centric institutions have refused to follow the policy of isolating Russia," it emphasizes.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., under whose chairmanship ASEAN has passed this year (it changes annually — editor's note), has confirmed his participation. The authorities of Vietnam, a country historically the mainstay of Russian presence in Southeast Asia, have confirmed their readiness. Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Le Minh Hung, appointed in April this year, was one of the first to arrive in Kazan, followed by Prime Minister of Thailand Anutin Charnvirakul and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Indonesia Sugiono.

The Prime Minister of Malaysia listens to “Matushka” and reads Tukay

On the same day, the Prime Minister of Malaysia Anwar Ibrahim was welcomed at Kazan airport, having recently become a fan of Russian national culture. A year ago, at the plenary session of the “Russia — Islamic World” forum, he read a poem by Gabdulla Tukay in Tatar, becoming a media personality. This time, before flying to Kazan, he posted on social media footage of boarding a plane to the song “Matushka” performed by Tatyana Kurtukova. “Heading to Kazan, Russian Federation, to participate in the commemorative ASEAN — Russia Summit," Ibrahim wrote.

The authorities of Cambodia and Singapore have confirmed the arrival of their prime ministers. The Secretary-General of ASEAN, Kao Kim Hourn, has also arrived in Kazan. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and Secretary-General of the SCO Nurlan Yermekbayev are expected as special guests. In total, about 4,000 delegates will take part in the summit.

The Kazan Declaration, the Comprehensive Plan of Action until 2030, and joint statements on energy and culture

President Vladimir Putin will take part in several events at the Russia — ASEAN Summit in Kazan, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov said at a briefing.

“On Wednesday and Thursday, that is, June 17–18, our president will take part in the anniversary summit of the Russian Federation — Association of Southeast Asian Nations," he said, adding that Putin will meet with the President of the Philippines, the Sultan of Brunei, the Prime Ministers of Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Laos, Cambodia and East Timor.

According to him, the summit participants will exchange views on current global and regional issues, and will also discuss integration processes in Eurasia, trade and security issues.

The summit is expected to adopt the Kazan Declaration, the Comprehensive Plan of Action for the implementation of the strategic partnership for 2026–2030, and joint statements on energy and culture, Yuri Ushakov reported.

In the evening, Vladimir Putin will hold a ceremonial reception in honor of the heads of delegations. It will take place in the new building of the Galiasgar Kamal Theatre.

ASEAN unites countries with monarchy and socialism, and this does not scare them

What practical interest might Russia have in restructuring cooperation with Southeast Asia? “Logistics seems most important, which will allow establishing sustainable logistics routes," political scientist Konstantin Kalachev said. “We can expect the opening of reliable markets for traditional products and find new partners who will help solve the problems caused by sanctions," he is confident.

Politically, these countries differ greatly from each other. Vietnam remains faithful to the socialist system, Thailand to the monarchy, and in Indonesia the communist party is banned and a capitalist system is developing. “Conventionally speaking, ASEAN states are fundamentally very different in their political structure. But they all have common economic interests. Russia has an opportunity to get the maximum benefit from resetting relations with Southeast Asia if it builds a mutually beneficial economic partnership with ASEAN," Kalachev believes.

Today, 684.1 million people live in ASEAN countries — this is the 3rd place in the world in terms of population. The total GDP of the countries is $3.9 trillion, or 5th place in the world; foreign trade turnover is estimated at $3.8 trillion. “We often underestimate the potential of these countries. In technological development, Indonesia and Thailand outpace many of the most dynamically developing economies in the world," in Kalachev's opinion, we should expect an expansion of trade and economic cooperation in the fields of mechanical engineering, IT, and agriculture.

Indonesia is among the ASEAN countries with the largest GDP among its members. In 2022, this state accounted for about 36.4% of the total GDP of ASEAN countries — approximately $1.3 trillion. In second place in terms of GDP in 2022 was Thailand (13.7%), followed by Singapore (12.9%), Vietnam (11.3%), Malaysia and the Philippines (11.2% each).

Indonesia is considered the main ASEAN economy due to significant resources, including reserves of nickel, bauxite, copper and iron sand.

As for payments, these countries have the most stable national currencies. For example, the exchange rate of the Thai baht or the Philippine peso has not changed for several years. “I think the issue of payments is a technical issue. The most important thing is whether there are markets for Russian products other than grain, hydrocarbons and mineral fertilizers," the expert pointed out.

“The current Russia — ASEAN Summit is taking place at a time of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, but Kazan can provide an atmosphere of informal communication with influential figures from ASEAN countries who can change the course of events," expressed hope orientalist Karine Gevorgyan.

“Kazan has a very friendly atmosphere in all respects. I felt this when I participated in the 'Russia — Islamic World' forum. It seems to me that now too, what is called 'personal contacts' will develop here. Moreover, personal and trusting ones. And it is in this that I see great benefit in today's turbulent conditions," the political scientist shared her opinion. “We do not know whether the war in the Middle East will resume, what will happen around Taiwan. These processes cannot be stopped. But if good personal, trusting relationships develop in Kazan, then there will be a chance to change the course of events.”

According to Karine Gevorgyan, signed memorandums and resolutions may turn out to be a formality, but strong personal ties can truly change the situation.