Expert on crisis in 2020: ‘It is a planned campaign. Nobody plays such games for no reason’
In the famous banker and financier’s opinion, the fall in oil prices and the ruble rate is a part of Russia’s plan for a fight with the dollar’s monopoly
The derailed deal with OPEC led to a collapse in oil prices and then a fall in the ruble rate. The situation became a surprise for most Russians, both market professionals and ordinary citizens. But famous banker and financier Yury Koptelov makes an assumption in his column in Realnoe Vremya that all the situation can be a part of Russia’s bigger plan to fight the dollar’s global monopoly and will ultimately lead to success.
As the Russian side turned out the initiator of all these problems, I think it is a planned campaign. Nobody plays such games for no reason. What’s the goal? I think there are two basic components: political and economic. They probably intersect with each other somehow.
From what we have heard recently officials say in interviews with key TV channels, it turns out that we consciously distance ourselves from the whole world. This is done either to localise our domestic economy in order to try to manage it better later or to consciously create a crisis that will help the current authorities to stay in power or do abrupt manoeuvres to get rid of a group of influential people or lift another one. Or to hold a large-scale reshuffle like our Putin loves to do. As everything was done abruptly, it is quite hard to understand the long-term prospect here.
The second option is macroeconomic. I also advocate the necessity to stop the monopoly of dollar power, and in this case, it is the most convenient moment against the backdrop of shivering markets due to consequences of the coronavirus. Powerful oscillations in the oil market are complementing it.
What does the stability of the dollar depend on in fact? On the oil market. Secondly, it does on the weapon market. Disrupting the monopoly of the dollar, our economy is damaged, but it is a temporary thing — we win from a political perspective.
Having undermined the dollar and world market, we can start to dictate our desires and the necessity of settlements in rubles or a currency tied with the ruble to our counteragents. This enables the ruble to enter markets of such converted currencies in the long term. As a result of sanctions, we saw that as much as our colleagues kept up appearances, Europe finds it hard to do without the Russian market and those earnings European concerns lose because of sanctions and the impossibility of running a business in Russia. Now such a warning blow can be made, so to speak: “Come on, lads, let’s see how you will do without the Russian market now. We will distance ourselves from all of you, we will close, let’s see how you will adapt or will you have to come and agree on something?” Then we will win the bargaining position, we can hold talks from a perspective of power.
Undoubtedly, this will be linked with some Russian turmoil because the economy is already not in its best state. On the other hand, any revolutionary change requires revolutionary losses, one has to dare at a certain point.
And now the situation just seems to be sudden. The government changed — this was aimed at something. There was probably a well-thought-out policy, the situation with the coronavirus just helped it. Though it isn’t for sure that this situation was not plotted. Another side perhaps created it for its purpose, but we managed to take advantage of it. Somebody kindled the wick, we just have to blow it up, it is what we are doing. If this game is aimed to undermine the monopoly of the American economy, we are in general doing a good job. It is a tough decision, it will cause a great negative outcry, the people will have a hard time. But this will turn all of our potential, all our reserves to close from the external world, use reserves to fix our market a bit, give an impulse to develop the Russian economy and industry.
Why does this have to be done surgically? Like in medicine, medication doesn’t have an effect any more. We missed the moment when this could have been done with injections in the 2000s thanks to a favourable external economic situation. And now the disease is severe, we can just cut, not to wait for peritonitis.