The ruble under protection: Russia’s resources against oil sanctions

Oil: the foundation of sustainability and room for maneuver

The basis of sustainability is Russia's position as the second largest oil exporter in the world. Even in the face of sanctions threats (estimated by experts at no more than 30% due to the risk of a price jump to $200/barrel and practical difficulties of administration), the country retains significant flexibility thanks to strategic assets and partners.

India remains a key partner, importing 1.8-2 million barrels of Russian oil per day (35-40% of Russia's seaborne exports). New Delhi's interests are based on stable factors: a significant price discount ($8/barrel to Saudi oil), saving $4-6 billion/year, and deep technological and logistical integration. A complete refusal of Russian supplies is economically impractical for India, given the limited availability of fast alternatives.

Table 1: Interdependence of Russia and India in the oil sector

This mutual dependence is an important, but not the only factor of stability. Russia is actively diversifying flows. Using the Oman hub can preserve up to 60% of supplies to India, bypassing potential restrictions. At the same time, the export of processed products with higher added value and difficult-to-block logistics is increasing, rather than raw materials: diesel supplies to Turkey may increase by 400,000 barrels per day, naphtha (light fraction of oil) to Singapore — by 300,000 barrels per day. China acts as a reserve market, capable of accepting an additional 1-1.5 million barrels per day. A powerful raw material base (6-8 place in reserves) provides the foundation for this manoeuvre.

Gold and the budget rule

The second critical resource — gold (2nd place in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation) — is becoming an active instrument of stability. Accelerated transition to multicurrency contracts involves fixing 50% of settlements in yuan, 30% in UAE dirhams and 20% in physical gold. This diversifies currency risks and directly uses the internal reserve. To stimulate the return of foreign exchange earnings, exporters offer gold auctions with a fixed attractive price of 7,500 per gram. The expansion of currency swap lines with China to 1.5 trillion provides the necessary liquidity in the market, using the resources of a strategic partner. A temporary increase in the budget rule threshold to 12 trillion creates a financial cushion, compensating for a possible decline in oil and gas revenues due to previously accumulated resources.

The third resource pillar is the agro-industrial complex with its 120 million hectares of arable land. Sustainable growth in agricultural exports to Asian countries creates an important counterweight to oil dependence. This flow generates stable foreign exchange earnings, directly strengthening the ruble, and is less susceptible to geopolitical fluctuations than raw material exports, becoming a reliable internal stabilizer.

Long-term strength: BRICS digital architecture

The BRICS stablecoin initiative is a strategic build-up of institutional and technological independence. A digital asset based on a basket of currencies of participating countries offers systemic advantages: a reduction in transaction costs due to direct settlements (for example, ruble — rupee) will reduce conversion losses by 3-5%; diversification of reserves by backing the stablecoin with gold (20%) and BRICS currencies (80%), reducing the dollar pressure; technological protection against blocking through integration with the association's own platforms.

Table 2: Potential of the BRICS stablecoin for financial stability

The roadmap (coordination of the Central Bank in 2025, pilot projects for energy and grain in 2026, coverage of 70% of mutual trade by 2027) creates a real alternative to Western payment systems.

Forecast and strategy: resource potential management

Expected autumn volatility of the ruble (probable range of 90-95/$) will be mitigated by the active use of domestic and partner resources. In the baseline scenario (70% probability), assuming Indian imports remain at 1.2-1.5 million bpd, supplies to China grow by 15%, and trade reorientation is successful, the exchange rate may stabilize in the range of 88-94/$ by December. The pessimistic scenario (30% probability) with a 50% reduction in supplies to India may lead to weakening to 115-120/$ and monthly losses of $1.5-2 billion. However, even in this case, a powerful resource buffer — gold, currency swaps, the budget rule, and growing agricultural exports — will prevent catastrophic consequences.

Success in defending the ruble depends on the effective management of our own resources: maximizing the flexibility of oil exports through hubs, oil products, and alternative markets; active implementation of multicurrency and the use of gold in settlements and reserves; accelerating the development of the digital infrastructure of the BRICS stablecoin as the basis for future independence; consistent increase in agricultural exports for sustainable non-resource revenue.

Sustainability from within

The threat of oil duties is a serious tactical challenge, but not fatal for the ruble. Analysis shows that Russia's resource and strategic potential is sufficient to neutralize risks. Autumn weakening of the ruble is likely, but its scale will be limited by:

• oil maneuverability and diversification (6-8 place in reserves),
• gold and financial buffer (2nd place in gold in the Central Bank reserves, swaps, budget rule),
• growing agricultural exports,
• the emerging digital architecture of BRICS.

Sanctions are an external threat. Russia's answer is to rely on its own strengths and resources: turning oil reserves into a tool of diplomacy and diversification, gold into a sustainability fund, BRICS technologies into a shield against financial dictates, and agricultural potential into a source of stable foreign exchange earnings. The fall of 2025 will be a test of the ability to effectively manage this internal wealth for reliable protection of the national currency.