‘May 2023 will obviously write itself into history as abnormally warm’
A big anomaly
This year, the spring months turned out to be abnormally warm. The deviation from the norm reached 3 degrees. This was reported to Realnoe Vremya by Timur Aukhadeev, Associate Professor of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology at the Institute of Ecology and Nature Management of the Kazan Federal University.
“We have more frequent cases when the previous maximum overlaps. But here it is important to say something else, May will obviously write itself into history as abnormally warm. This May of 2023. And here is such a marathon of warm months, warm anomalies, it has been going on since February. Since February, all the months have been warmer than normal. In my opinion, March and April had an anomaly of more than 3 degrees, which is a big anomaly," the specialist said.
According to Timur Aukhadeev, the average May temperatures in Tatarstan this year reached July values — about +20 degrees. There were 14 such days in the last month of spring. At the same time, it is worth pointing out that meteorologists define summer as a period when the average daily temperature is above +15 ° C.
“It is important to note that we consider May to be quite favourable, because the monthly precipitation rate has fallen. In April, for comparison, there was no precipitation at all, less than 1 mm fell," said the associate professor of the KFU.
It is noteworthy that frosts up to -6..-7 degrees were also recorded in May. Then a storm warning was announced several times in Tatarstan.
Timur Aukhadeev also said that on May 25 the air temperature reached 31,3 degrees. The last time such a positive anomaly was observed was in 1967: “It did not break the record, but it repeated it.”
At the same time, according to the Kazan-Sokol aviation weather station in the Aviastroitelny district of Kazan, the air warmed up to +30,7°C on May 25. The previous absolute maximum temperature on the same day was recorded in 1905 — it was +30,6 °C.
“A global phenomenon is developing”
Associate Professor Aukhadeev, in an interview with Realnoe Vremya, also announced a preliminary forecast for the coming summer. According to him, the temperature in the next 3 months is going to be close to the climatic norm.
“Speaking of summer, it is important to note that our summer is still predicted to be close to the climatic norm both in temperature and precipitation. But attention is drawn to that a positive anomaly is expected in the vast majority of our country. The thing is that these forecasts do not have the highest justifiability — about 60%. Therefore, detailing on the territory may not coincide much," the interlocutor of the publication stressed.
At the same time, according to the preliminary forecast, Indian summer is expected in Tatarstan, Timur Aukhadeev added. Such high temperatures, according to him, are associated with the development of such a phenomenon as El Niño.
“This year, we are developing such a macro-scale global phenomenon as El Niño. What is this? This is the phenomenon of such abnormal warming of water in the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean. Why is it connected with Kazan, with Tatarstan? Well, how? It seems far away. The thing is that when this active phenomenon is observed, its active phase occurs, as a rule, warming occurs throughout the globe that year. The last time such phenomenon was observed was in 2016. Then, indeed, a record of the globe temperature as a whole was achieved. And since the atmosphere, as a transport, moves air masses that are abnormally warm, it is most likely that this will also manifest itself with some delay. But the phenomenon is usually long-lasting. That is, it can last for six months, a year, or more," Timur Aukhadeev explained.
It is planned that El Niño enters the active phase in August. Because of this, high temperatures are expected in September.
May records and frosts
According to the Hydrometeorological Centre of Tatarstan, which acts as a source of official prognostic and factual weather information, May in Tatarstan will be remembered for frosts and temperature records. The last two were registered in the capital of the republic — on May 1 and 25. In total, nine temperature records were recorded in Kazan in the spring of 2023.
On the first day of May, a temperature record of more than a century ago was broken in Kazan. The air in the city, according to the weather station located in the Volga region, warmed up to +30.1°C, and according to the Kazan-Airport aviation weather station — up to +30.8°C. The previous absolute maximum air temperature for May 1 in Kazan in 1920 was +26.7°C.
But after that, the cold snap came. Night temperatures in Tatarstan, including in Kazan, dropped to 0 degrees and below. Due to frosts, the Hydrometeorological Centre of the republic repeatedly announced a storm warning.
The second temperature record for May 2023 was registered on May 25. At the same time, according to the Kazan-Sokol aviation weather station in the Aviastroitelny district of Kazan, the air warmed up to +30.7°C on May 25. The previous absolute maximum temperature on the same day was recorded in 1905 — it was +30.6 °C.