‘Either the Israelis won't admit that the jet was lost or will admit and use it for a big attack on Assad’

'Israel is staking on chaos'

It is clear Israel has not the confirmed the information yet. However, can we talk about the consequences of this situation?

Israel is actively interfering in the business of Syria – it is obvious. For Israel, Syria is not a simple neighbour. The relations with this neighbour has always been important during the existence of the Zionist state. After Egypt made peace with Israel and stopped being its main rival in the Arab-Israeli confrontation, Syria was the country that directly and indirectly participated in other local conflicts. For example, Syria was one of the indirect but important participants of Israel's last, unsuccessful war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Moreover, Syria helped the Palestinians – HAMAS' headquarters was located in Damask before the start of the civil war. Having simplified a bit, we can say Israel is staking on chaos. Israel is interested in a sluggish civil conflict in Syria where the Arabs have been persistently killing each other for a long time. Both the Iranians and Turkish support this murder and simultaneously die too. Tel-Aviv wants the fighting sides to exhaust each other by war; Damask is to refuse from the territories that Israel took away from Syria – it is the most important thing.

What territories do you mean?

I'm speaking about the Golan Heights. Israel occupied these territories during an aggression in 1967. The Golan Heights are a strategically important territory from a military perspective. This is why a great deal of spears was broken around it. Syria has never admitted their occupation. Neither did the UN, by the way. But Israel occupied, colonised and is not going to return them.

'Israel is interested in a sluggish civil conflict in Syria where the Arabs have been persistently killing each other for a long time. Both the Iranians and Turkish support this murder and simultaneously die too.' Photo: AFP

Will Russia interfere in the conflict?

So what will happen next? Will Israel go to war?

As I have mentioned above, the conservation of the unstable situation, while there is a civil war in Syria, is to Israel's benefit now. I will remember that Israel has been caught many times helping the Syrian militants. It even treated them in its hospitals. Then they returned to the war. As for the downed Israeli jet, if this information is confirmed, it is unlikely to be a sensation because the Israelis have crossed the Syrian territory many times. Just yesterday it was told a stray missile from Syria provoked a return shot of Israel. We know Israel has the following policy – to reply to any shots at its territory with more massive attacks. Palestine proves it when Israel cruelly replies to the Palestinians' attempts to oppose – Israel just flattens residential quarters.

It is obvious that there is a civil war in Syria. And missiles often visit its neighbours – Turkey and Iraq. Everybody fully understands that probably Assad did not intend to attack Israel, and a chance shell that turned out in Israel was aimed at militants… The Israelis also understand it. Nevertheless, they don't rush to take their revenge… We should not forget that Hezbollah – a Lebanese Shi'a militant group that Israel has been dreaming of destroying for a long time – is fighting in Syria together with Assad's supporters. This is why today in Syria Israel wants to weaken Hezbollah seriously – information about the death of its leaders and Iranian militants is given over and over. Taking advantage of the civil war in Syria, Israel is performing its own task by killing the Iranians and Lebanese who are fighting for Assad in Syria.

'We know Israel has the following policy – to reply to any shots at its territory with more massive attacks.' Photo: Israel Defense Forces

It is an interesting question 'what will happen' if the Syrians really shot the Israeli jet, of course. But it is difficult to answer it. On the one hand, anyway, Israel is involved in the business of Syria, and its administration has to have calculated the risks. On the other hand, it is doubtful that the Israeli society will tolerate having no answer to this question. This is why there are two options: either the Israelis just won't admit that the jet was lost or admit it and use it for a big shot. It will worsen the situation in Syria, of course, because not only the Syrian but also Russian and Turkish forces are in Syria today…

By the way, it is an interesting question about a possible participation of the Russian anti-aircraft warfare in the respond to the Israeli attack. We know that the Russians are in Syria and are helping the Syrians to defend the air space from unexpected guests very much. The Syrians' vehicles are obsolete. They are unlikely to be able to fight against the American and Israeli vehicles… Israel will get away with counterattacks on Syrian forces or Hezbollah, as it used to be. Israel has a powerful ally in the form of its lobby in different countries of the world. It will justify Israel's all actions, of course. And the actions will be represented as a protection of the Israeli people.

But I hope Israel won't drift in the whirligig of the Syrian civil war. Once it participated in the Lebanese in 1982 and got nothing good from it except a mass of problems. Today the Syrian conflict has already had many participants who have bogged down – Turkey, Iran, Russia.

'Israel will get away with counterattacks on Syrian forces or Hezbollah, as it used to be.' Photo: Israel Defense Forces

The Syrians shot the Turkish about two years ago. But our President interfered at that moment. Is Russia playing any role now?

In fact, Russia and Israel have uneasy relations. But the Israeli policy has agreed with the Russian one to a certain degree in recent time. We know how often Netanyahu visits Moscow, how often the leaders of our countries talk to each other. Hezbollah must not get the vehicles that the Syrians own. It is what Israel usually asked Russia. Russia, in turn, could not be glad that the Israelis shot Assad's supporters, which played to ISIS and other militants' hand. I think Russia doesn't want new players in this conflict, but it cannot help but take into account the position of its Syrian neighbours: whether it is Turkey or Israel.

Anyway, we won't hurry with the 'downed Israeli jet' during the conflict in Syria. Unfortunately, we have a great amount of false information. If the Israeli jet was really shot, on the one hand, it will mean the Israelis can't act in Syria without being punished, and, on the other hand, their expected 'revenge' is unlikely to favour the stabilisation of the situation in Syria, which has already been uneasy.