‘Erdogan has not become the new caliph’
Will Moscow make a return move in the direction of Ankara and what it will be?
The world has seen the first signs of warming of Turkish-Russian relations: Moscow has received an evasive apology from Turkey for the downed SU-24 bomber. Nevertheless, you should not expect optimistic developments of events. According to the political scientist, the director of the Center for Islamic Studies Rinat Pateyev, the head of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan dared for this forced move due to the crisis of foreign policy and economic crisis in Ankara. And whether Putin will make a return move is the big question. About this the expert said in an interview with Realnoe Vremya.
Failed foreign policy of Ankara
Why did Turkey decide to reconcile with Russia? And will Vladimir Putin accept the apology of Erdogan?
Erdogan has taken such decision because of rather disastrous foreign policy. He ruined every relationship — from Israel, ending with Syria and Russia. Due to the fact that he tried to play an independent role in the Middle East, Erdogan has partly spoiled relations with the West. After the situation with the referendum in Europe, the vector of Turkey's integration with the European Union has turned out to be under a big question. The issue on entry into the European Union was discussed before Erdogan, then it was moved aside. After the complications on the international arena, it came up again. This step of Erdogan can be called forced because he had no political manoeuvring left. But whether the Russian side will accept it, I can not say for sure. Russia and Turkey have quite close economic ties. Ankara will be able to build relations with Moscow. But in what form, whether the relationship will be the same after the events associated with the aircraft, it is hard to say.
How do you see the scenarios of development of relations between two countries — optimistic, pessimistic or neutral?
Most likely, the forecast will be median. It is unlikely that relations will be the same as before the incident. Maybe there will be some kind of warming.
Will Russia be able to rebuild its state machine, the economic system again to return to the previous relationship?
The economic part of the relationship is reduced to the interaction of economic subjects. I think everyone will quickly adapt to the situation. It is a flexible field. And in the government agencies — there will be the cooperation on the line of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on other lines. There will be some changes, of course.
To play a caliph
How quick will we be able to return to the previous relationship?
Everything will depend on foreign policy situation in Russia and Turkey. Turkey, of course, now has less potential for manoeuvring. The relations with the Muslim world, as Erdogan planned in a certain period of his reign, has not become central. Roughly speaking, he has not become the new caliph. He has ruined relations with Israel, the West. And anti-Erdogan sentiments in Europe are quite strong. Therefore, Turkey has not so many manoeuvres. Russia, despite the difficult foreign policy situation, has quite many manoeuvres — in the post-Soviet space, in the Eurasian economic cooperation. So, Russia is in a more advantageous situation.
So, the foreign players, including Russia, Europe, the USA, have not accepted the Erdogan's policy of Neo-Ottomanism?
Yes. Turkey was and remains a key player for the West. It was a strategic union. And when Erdogan started his own game, and this was particularly evident in relations with Israel, of course, it gradually alarmed and led to rather cold relations with the West.
Kazan 'aerodrome'
Rinat Faikovich, what is the role of Tatarstan in the settlement of these relations?
It is hard to say. Of course, Tatarstan had quite good relations with Turkey. However, the leading role belongs to the federal centre. Because the main problem in the Russian-Turkish relations had a foreign policy character and was connected with various assessments of what is happening in the Middle East.
Did Moscow consider Tatarstan as an alternate aerodrome for maintaining the relations during their aggravation?
It is hard to say what was the position of the federal centre. But the events associated with the bomber led to a quite complicated reaction of Moscow. The position was unambiguous. Moscow gradually defended a part of the requirements. I do not think that the role of Tatarstan was considered in a special way. After all, the question was in the assessment of the situation in the Middle East. This situation was assessed differently in Moscow and Ankara.
Turkish tomatoes and beaches
Russian and Turkey had a lot of joint projects, not only economic ones but also scientific and cultural. In Russia there have been closed many Turkish centres, some entrepreneurs closed their businesses. Will they return back?
I think partially. Most likely there will warming. However, it is hard to say in what form they will result.
That means that we will not see Turkish tomatoes soon?
Exactly tomatoes we will see. You should understand that Turkey made this step after the known events in the foreign policy, mostly the economic ones. Russia was and remains the second country for the sales market of Turkish products. This move is mostly connected with economic issues rather than cultural interactions and others.
How soon will the Russian tourists return to the Turkish beaches?
I don't know whether they will return this year, but it is possible that they can do it next year.
