November in Kazan will be abnormally warm, meteorologist says
Pre-winter has come to the republic: when will the first snow fall in the capital of Tatarstan?
This autumn has shown temperature anomalies month after month: October was one degree warmer than the average, and September — was four degrees warmer. Forecasters give a similar forecast for November. At the same time, permanent snow cover in Kazan within the norm should appear by the middle of the month. Meteorologist Timur Aukhadeyev told Realnoe Vremya when winter will come to the capital of Tatarstan.
Autumn anomalies for the seventh year in a row
October has been abnormally warm for the seventh year in a row, meteorologist Timur Aukhadeyev told Realnoe Vremya. This time, this month showed a deviation of 1 degree with the norm of +5.3 degrees.
“In addition, there was a serious deficit of precipitation. 31 October tried to make up for lost time — almost 20 mm of precipitation fell, which is 40% of the monthly norm. Before that, about the same amount fell. Thus, October ended with a slight shortage of precipitation,” added Aukhadeyev.
However, the expert assured: such anomalies will not have a negative impact. Despite the fact that the temperature still dropped below zero, the phenomenon does not pose a danger, although it may affect the volume of snowfall.
“During the last days of October, temporary snow cover normally forms, which is still absent in Kazan due to positive temperatures. Usually, the first snow appears around these dates,” said Aukhadeyev.
When will it snow in Kazan?
November, according to the speaker, will also be warmer than the norm by 0.5-1 degree, it is -2.5°C. This can “shift” the date of the establishment of permanent snow cover and freeze-up — the period when water bodies are covered with ice.
The current season is called pre-winter. During this period, unstable weather is fine. Winter rarely comes here the first time. The cold weather that we will observe in the coming days is only the first episode. Usually, winter comes the second or third time, he said.
However, the probability that permanent snow will fall on time is higher, assured Aukhadeyev. It can be expected in the second ten-day period of the month — 15-17 November:
“We think that the snow will fall as normal, the climate has already changed to a winter pattern. This weekend we are expecting a second cyclone. They bring cloudy weather, a high probability of mixed precipitation. In addition, due to low night temperatures, we have ice forming. This is typical for pre-winter.”
“So far, everything is going according to plan”
September demonstrated the biggest anomaly this fall — the average temperature was +16.3 degrees with a norm of +12.3. Thus, September went down in history as one of the warmest months on the entire globe.
“The heat anomaly is a global process”
“This autumn was anomalously warm. At the same time, our autumn months are rhythmically warming up from year to year, so it is worth starting to get used to it. October-November on average become half a degree warmer every decade, and that is a lot,” the meteorologist noted.
At the same time, the consequences of such temperature deviations, according to him, are unclear in the long term:
“So far, everything is going according to plan, the temperature is just slightly above the average. As for the global consequences, autumn phenology (the science of seasonal natural phenomena) is very vague, so it is difficult to see any consequences.”