Denis Dyomin, Gazpromneft: ‘140 million tonnes of barrels are produced a day, this covers all global demand’

Conflicts do not drag down prices

The price situation on the global oil market in the coming years will be determined by two countries — China, which is gradually reducing demand for Russian oil, and the United States, which is reducing shale oil supplies to the European market. It is difficult to reverse the maturing trends, but the international conflicts and trade wars that have flared up are capable of changing the price of a barrel due to the general instability in the energy markets. This is the conclusion reached by the participants of the panel discussion Sustainable Development in an Unstable World: the Future of Energy in the Global South and Russia’s Interests at 2025 SPIEF.

“The global world system is getting out of balance. At first glance, it may seem that conflicts will contribute to an increase in world oil prices, and exporting countries will only benefit from this. Unfortunately, this is not the case,” said the moderator of the session, Rector of the St. Petersburg State University of Economics Igor Maksimtsev at the beginning of the discussion.

In the long term, risks will increase for all participants in international markets, supply chains will break down, which means that integration projects will not be implemented. The market will plunge into a speculative environment, he fears. How can we restore stability to the market in an unstable world?

China to reduce demand for russian oil after 2027

Gazpromneft, one of the top three oil producing companies in the Russian Federation, does not share concerns about the possible onset of chaos in the global energy market. Head of the Strategy, Innovation and Sustainable Development Department of the company Denis Dyomin said that there is a large space for diversifying Russian oil supplies. We are talking about the countries that import the global South, where 4.5 billion people live and there is a constantly high demand for energy resources. According to him, Russia remains the main exporter of oil to China and India, which take the bulk of the produced hydrocarbons. He did not provide specific figures for oil supplies.

Denis Dyomin identified a new trend that will soon change the structure of Russian oil supplies. According to him, China, which in recent years has remained the driver of demand growth, is switching to a mode of gradually reducing hydrocarbon consumption.

The reason is the transition of most transport to electric vehicles, which is supported at the state level of the Celestial Empire. “China is doing well in developing the electric vehicle segment, its success in switching (to clean transport) can be compared to the shale revolution in the United States,” he said.

By 2030, China's economy is set to take first place, but the country is confidently heading toward alternative sources. Solar panels, geothermal sources, and electric transport have experienced explosive growth. According to experts, China's oil consumption will peak in 2027, after which it will begin to decline.

India will take over from China, and the United States will reduce shale

Oil producers expect to replace the lost supplies with India, Denis Dyomin said. “China will most likely yield to India in terms of demand growth in the coming years,” he said. This country is showing high rates of economic growth, so demand for oil will be stable.

Another decisive factor that will change the situation on the global oil market will be the reduction in shale oil production in the United States, he noted. According to him, international agencies predict flat production until 2030. However, these volumes will be replaced by South American countries — Brazil and even Argentina. He explained this by the fact that shelf technologies have become more accessible than before.

Independent expert from Germany Ralf Dickel agreed that the growth of consumption oil production will be higher in the global South than in the countries of the North. According to him, European countries are on the path of de-emergence of their economies, while developing countries, on the contrary, need more fuel. For them, fossil fuels, in particular oil and gas, will have priority over renewable energy sources, he noted.

Nuclear energy in Uzbekistan, Indonesia and Bolivia

Russian universities are setting themselves the task of diversifying technologies, relying not only on classical oil production. “We should not expect high growth in oil prices due to the demand for alternative energy,” said Rector of the Ufa Petroleum University Oleg Baulin. According to him, the boom in the introduction of renewable energy technologies (RES) in China was caused by the high cost of oil, so it is necessary to look for approaches to reducing the cost of energy production. Acting Rector of Tomsk Polytechnic University Leonid Sukhikh added that not many countries are interested in alternatives, but there are those who are interested in developing nuclear energy. Thus, Bolivia, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan have begun sending young people to study there to prepare for these specialties.

Professor of the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg University Stanislav Tkachenko summed it up. “The world could not withstand globalization, which is why such upheavals are happening,” he noted. According to him, the solution may be to create energy hubs from which Russian oil producers can supply oil.

On the international oil market, supply exceeds demand, so stability will be maintained, assured a representative of Gazpromneft: “140 million tonnes of barrels are produced per day, which covers all demand in the world. The increase in demand is only 1%.”