The dollar exchange rate has updated a two-year minimum: if we should expect the ruble to strengthen
What caused the growth of the Russian currency
For the first time in two years, the dollar fell below 79 rubles — and the reason for this is geopolitics, Realnoe Vremya experts unanimously decided. At the same time, economists diverged in their forecasts: according to Yevgeny Nadorshin, the dollar will reach 110 rubles by the end of the year. Rustem Shayakhmetov is confident: it is difficult to predict the further development of the situation. Read more about it in the report of Realnoe Vremya.
The dollar is below 79 rubles
On 21 April afternoon, the dollar exchange rate updated its minimum since the spring of 2023. On the international currency market “Forex”, the currency was trading below the 79 ruble mark. Thus, as of 12:02 Moscow time, the dollar/ruble pair fell by 4.68%, or by 3.85, the dollar exchange rate fell to 78.2538, according to Investing data. This happened for the first time since 30 May 2023.
On the Russian interbank market, the dollar lost 2.08%, falling to 79.925.
The Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar for Monday, April 21, at 81.1 rubles, the euro — 92.2, the yuan — 11.1.
“The market is irrationally assessing the prospects”
The current strengthening of the ruble is nothing more than speculation, Evgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at the consulting company PF Capital, expressed confidence in a conversation with Realnoe Vremya:
The news agenda itself does not move the currency, Nadorshin continued. Thus, the current situation can be called speculation. However, the ruble will not strengthen for long on expectations alone, he believes.
If peace agreements do not lead to the easing of sanctions, then there will be no reason for the ruble to further appreciate. At the same time, the easing of sanctions will not lead to the strengthening of the currency either.
“If sanctions are eased, then the cross-border movement of capital will be among the first to be simplified. Its outflow from the country will begin to increase, which will negatively affect the ruble. That is, in any case, the ruble will become cheaper,” the speaker explained.
The reasons for the current situation also include the weakening of the dollar — “as a result of the actions of the American authorities, the dollar is getting cheaper against many currencies, including the euro,” this also supports the interest of speculators in the ruble.
Nadorshin predicts: by the end of the year, the dollar will rise again to 100-110 rubles.
“Regardless of what rates we will see in the near future, this is a completely realistic forecast for the end of the year. I have long accepted the high volatility of the Russian market as a fact. It must be said that it was not low before, but since 2022 even the previous stabilization mechanisms have stopped working. The same interventions of the Central Bank are very limited and have become less flexible,” the expert believes.
The economist noted that at the moment, buying dollars is an appropriate means of investment:
“Speculation on currency for those who are ready to consider it as a way to earn money is one of the most interesting. No ruble bonds, shares, real estate and even deposits look so interesting again. If you want to invest with the potential for a fairly high income in a short period, then currency speculation looks very promising.”
“Now you need to be careful”
The head of the R-Invest company, Rustem Shayakhmetov, holds an absolutely opposite opinion regarding the current rate. In a conversation with the publication, he was unable to give exact forecasts — according to him, the situation is unpredictable.
According to Shayakhmetov, the further development of the situation will depend on foreign policy conditions and the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. It is difficult to make forecasts, since “there are conflicting signals”:
“On the one hand, we must understand that we are very dependent on the American and European currencies, but, on the other hand, the Chinese currency has appeared. And since we are becoming more and more tied to the yuan and Chinese financial instruments, we will depend on several players.”
Is it worth buying dollars now? The expert expressed doubts about this method of earning money, since there are no guarantees that the ruble will become cheaper.
“I think you need to be careful now. If you have the funds, you can invest them, but it is not a fact that you will win. I would advise investing in deposits, which are very high and now provide increased profitability,” he noted.