Mortgage arrears in Tatarstan rise twofold

Mortgage arrears are increasing, the number of transactions is decreasing

Overdue mortgage debt increased by 97% in Tatarstan over the year and, according to the Debt Consultant, exceeded 2.7 billion rubles, said Anastasia Gizatova, the head of Svastliviy Dom company. A year ago, it was about 1.4 billion rubles, and at the beginning of the year before last it was about 1.3 billion rubles.

“Therefore, if you can get into the first or second group, before buying, weigh your strengths and calculate the consequences," Gizatova recommends.

The delay in individual housing loans in Tatarstan, according to the Bank of Russia, reached 2.4 billion rubles at the beginning of 2025. It has grown significantly over the past year — at the beginning of 2024, the delay was 1.219 billion rubles, and on January 1, 2023, it was 1.196 billion rubles.

At the same time, the number of mortgage transactions in January decreased by almost half compared to the same period last year. In Tatarstan, 3,587 transactions involving housing loans were registered in January 2025. In January 2024 — 6,095, in January 2023 — 5,930.

A record in the history of observations

Overdue mortgage debt in Russia has reached record levels in the entire history of observations and exceeded 100 billion rubles.

Although in the 12 months ending February 1, 2025, the volume of delinquencies in the mortgage portfolio increased by more than 60%, its share remains at a low level — about 0.5%. “In the current conditions, we can expect a continuation of the upward trend in the volume of overdue payments, as a result of which their share in the portfolio may reach 1% over the horizon of 1-1.5 years, but this indicator is also not catastrophic, for example, we saw such a level in 2019," Teterin gives an example.

It is important to note that an indicator such as the ratio of the volume of mortgage loans with overdue payments to the total volume of mortgage loans is more indicative for assessing the quality of banks' mortgage portfolios. However, unfortunately, such statistics are not currently being published, he added.

Sofya Ostapenko, an analyst at the NKR rating agency, agrees that in absolute terms, there has indeed been a significant increase in overdue debt: in 2024, its volume increased by more than 1.5 times.

The share of overdue debt in the mortgage portfolio remains at a very low level: as of January 1, 2025, it rose to 0.5%, while at the beginning of 2024 it was 0.3%, and at the beginning of 2023 it was 0.4%.

“We do not expect it to grow significantly in the future, given the significant drop in demand and issuance starting in the second half of 2024, as well as the introduction of a number of macroprudential measures," Ostapenko predicts. “In particular, the Bank of Russia notes an improvement in the quality of mortgage loans issued: the share of loans with LTV 80+ (with a down payment of 20% or less) in the issuance structure decreased by 22 percentage points to 9% compared to 2023.”

According to data for 2024, banks in the shared-equity construction segment have practically stopped issuing loans with a down payment of less than 20%. In 2024, only 1% of such loans were issued, compared to 63% in 2023.

A huge social problem

Yan Art, аinancial expert, member of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Commission on banks and banking, believes that there is no threat to the banking sector in the growth of overdue debts, but nevertheless this is a huge social problem.

This will become a huge social problem if many Russian mortgage lenders face the threat of losing their homes. At one time, when a similar situation was going to happen during the crisis of 2008-2009, at AIZHK, the agency for housing mortgage lending (later transformed into DOM.RF), the state agency for the restructuring of residential mortgage loans (ARIZHK) was created, Art reminds. It was engaged in “resolution” of defaults of mortgage borrowers. Perhaps, the current situation will require the revival of this structure, he does not exclude.

There is no mortgage bubble in the market

The share of household mortgage debt in Russia in relation to GDP is still several times lower than in other countries with developed mortgage markets, while mortgage delinquency accounts for a low 0.8% of the portfolio, that is, the discipline of Russians in servicing their mortgage loans remains high.

However, this, of course, does not mean that there is no cause for concern, the analyst adds. The situation in the domestic economy remains difficult, and some new strong economic, geopolitical or other shocks cannot be ruled out, which will lead to a deterioration in the income situation of citizens and weaken their ability to service mortgage loans.

At the same time, the Central Bank is closely monitoring the situation in the mortgage market and is taking measures to limit risks in it. In particular, on January 1, a mortgage standard began to operate in the country, which should significantly reduce the use of various risky schemes when buying a home with a mortgage, and later this year the regulator may begin to set direct macroprudential limits on mortgage loans to borrowers (similar to the limits in unsecured consumer lending). “I believe that the Central Bank will have enough competencies and resources to prevent an uncontrolled proliferation of risks in the mortgage segment," Dodonov believes.