KAMAZ resists the onslaught of the Chinese: an overview of the Russian truck market
At the end of the year, KAMAZ retained its leadership in the Russian market of new lorries with 23,100 lorries and chassis sold
A decline in the heavy lorry market has been recorded in Russia, where KAMAZ has traditionally been the leader. One of the reasons is the exorbitant cost of loans and leasing. The second is the oversaturation of Chinese lorries. In 2024, KAMAZ was able to maintain its leadership in the category of lorries with a gross weight of over 14 tonnes, resisting large-scale Chinese expansion. At the same time, if formally the brands from the Middle Kingdom took an even larger share of the domestic market in 2024 — 61.4% instead of 60.6%, de facto their sales fell by 11.4%. The share of the Chinese in the foreign car segment has decreased from 91.7% to 90.8%. The coming 2025 promises to be difficult for the industry — loans are still expensive, and the volume of production in the country is declining.
The Chinese increased their share, but suffered due to a decline in sales
The volume of the lorry market in 2024 amounted to 126,200 vehicles, of which 23,000 were medium lorries, sales of which increased by 20% compared to 2023. About 103,000 were heavy lorries where, on the contrary, there was a serious decline due to saturation with Chinese trucks and due to deliveries of lorries to law enforcement agencies, which is not taken into account in the overall statistics, Avtostat-Info expert Alexander Klimnov told Realnoe Vremya.
In the structure of annual sales, 68% were foreign brands, 32% were Russian brands, Klimnov notes. At the same time, sales of foreign trucks by the end of the year decreased by 10% — to 85,300, and sales of domestic vehicles fell by 16% — to 40,900 thouand.
“The overall reduction in sales of new trucks in 2024 compared to 2023 was 12%. Moreover, during the year there were several ‘waves’ of increasing demand (in February-March, June-July and the most significant peak in October) and falling demand (in April-May, August-September and especially towards the end of the year in November-December, when increased recycling fee rates came into effect and the Central Bank rate reached 21% a year, which provoked a sharp drop in the volume of leasing of lorries and even refusals of a number of carriers from entire batches of lorries due to the impossibility of making further leasing payments at rates higher than 30-35%,” explains Klimnov.
At the end of the year, KAMAZ retained its leadership in the Russian market of new lorries with an indicator of 23,100 lorries and chassis sold. The remaining places in the top 5 brands were occupied by Chinese brands: Sitrak sold 19,400 lorries (-19%), Shacman sold 15,600 vehicles (-26%), FAW — 11,700 (-26%), and Dongfeng increased sales by 114% to almost 10,000 vehicles.
The share of Chinese automakers at the end of 2024 took 61.4% of the entire lorry market (77,400), including 90.8% of the foreign car segment, against 60.6% and 91.7% in 2023, respectively. It was the Sitrak C7H 4x2 truck tractor that became the sales leader among trucks in Russia, despite the fact that the sales figures for this model fell by 32% in 2024 to 12.4 thousand vehicles, but the popularity of this model is such that it is significantly ahead of the second-placed Dongfeng DFH with a result of 7,000 vehicles sold (+84%).
The top five leading lorry models at the end of 2024 also include GAZ GAZon NEXT with 6,000 vehicles sold (+5%), Shacman SX331 with 8x4 wheel arrangement with 5,300 (-25%) and another Sitrak — the C7H model with 6x4 wheel arrangement with 5,000 (+ 90%).
“Although in 2024 Chinese brands formally took an even larger market share compared to 2023: 61.4% (77,400) against 60.6% (87,400), but de facto their physical sales have already fallen by 10,000 cars or 11.4%, and even the share in the foreign car segment has decreased — from 91.7% to 90.8%, which indicates an oversaturation of the market with brands from China,” notes Alexander Klimnov.
In 2024, KAMAZ remained the leader in the category of lorries with a gross weight of over 14 tons, where it sold 20,300 vehicles. In the segment of medium lorries with a gross weight from 8 to 14 tonnes, the auto giant significantly increased sales to 4,150 and took the second position after the GAZ Group.
At the same time, the drop in sales of the Chelny lorry plant in 2024 amounted to 26.5%, that is, more than a quarter, but this is demonstrated by the registration figures on the civilian market, and the real loading of conveyors (two shifts of 12 hours 7 days a week) remains quite high, explains Alexander Klimnov.
“The best of the models: the KAMAZ-43118 all-terrain vehicle with a 6x6 wheel arrangement (4,400, -35%) and the KAMAZ-5490 mainline lorry tractor with modifications (4,400, -7%) took only 8th and 9th places in the 2024 rating. Although, in general, by the end of 2024, the plant still reduced its share from 21.8% to 18.3%,” says Klimnov. “Nevertheless, in December, the decline in sales was only 9% less than in December 2023 — 2,250 versus 2,470, respectively. At the same time, the market share (December to December) increased from 19.5% to 25.9%.”
In Tatarstan, KAMAZ is the undisputed leader
In Tatarstan, according to the results of 2024, the market for new trucks fell by 16% to 6.24 thousand, which amounted to 4.9% of the all-Russian market. Domestic brands occupied 66% of the market in Tatarstan (4,090) versus 55% (4,120) a year earlier. Among the brands, KAMAZ naturally led with sales of 3,780 (-2%), and its market share increased to 60.6% against 51.7% in 2023. Accordingly, foreign brands fell from 45% (3,320) of the market to 34% (2,150), and the best brand remained the Chinese Sitrak, despite a 56% drop to 506 units.
Among the models of trucks in Tatarstan, the domestic KAMAZ-5490 tractor was in the lead by a huge margin, its sales grew by 40% to 2,600, and after it, sales of the medium-tonnage KAMAZ-4308, which took second place, jumped by 141% to 246 units, while sales of the all-terrain vehicle KAMAZ-43118, which took third place, fell by 47% to 232 units, but it is clear where the significant volumes of this model that are not registered with the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate go, Klimnov explained. In fourth place is the KAMAZ-65115 (6x4) with 180 lorries (-31%), and the top 5 models were rounded out by the construction and quarry four-axle (8x4) dump truck Shaanxi SX 331 with 102 vehicles (-20%). The remaining models did not overcome the sales threshold of 100 units.
According to traffic police registration data, KAMAZ sold 20,300 lorries on the Russian commercial vehicle market with a gross weight of over 14 tonnes (the standard adopted in Russia) and retained its leadership position, the auto giant's official website reports.
Despite the fact that in 2024 the auto plant's main efforts were aimed at supplying vehicles to protect the country's borders, the company's engineers continued to work on developing the K5 line. In August, a new product was introduced to the Russian market — the KAMAZ-54902 (4x2) lorry tractor, which is a more affordable analogue of the KAMAZ-54901. The vehicle is designed for regional transportation over relatively short distances — up to one thousand kilometres. In addition, other models of the K5 line were launched on the market in 2024: the KAMAZ-65955 (6x6) lorry tractor, the KAMAZ-6595 (6x4) and 65951 (8x4) dump trucks, the 65658 (6x2) chassis, and the gas version of the flagship KAMAZ-54901 (4x2), the press service lists.
The year will be difficult for the lorry market
“In 2025, due to a number of economic factors, a decrease in activity in road transport and the construction sector is expected, which will lead to a decrease in the lorry market by up to 20%, which means that the Year of the Snake that has begun for KAMAZ and other Russian manufacturers of lorries will be quite difficult,” predicts Alexander Klimnov.
President of the Association of Russian Automobile Dealers Alexey Podshchekoldin noted in his presentation that about 70% of lorries in Russia are purchased with borrowed funds. “It has become difficult to conclude loan and leasing agreements under the current conditions. This means that tomorrow the fleet will not be updated, old cars, old dump trucks will be driving, and an accident with an old dump truck is much more serious than ordinary road accidents. It is desirable that commercial vehicles be as new and safe as possible,” Podshchekoldin warned.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, the market volume in the lorry segment in 2024 amounted to 121,562 units (-13% compared to 2023).
Sales of new lorries in 2025, according to the analyst, will depend on the development of the unmanned lorry segment, changes in the rules and regulations for this type of transport and the opening of more roads in the country for it, Baranov believes. The market will also depend on the state of the economy, the cost of borrowed funds and the availability of different types of work in the country for trucks. “We can predict that the volume of the truck segment in 2025 will be 126-131,000 units,” the expert summarised.