‘Enterprises of the republic maintain a high investment activity’
Tatarstan's gross regional product for next year is projected to be 5.3 trillion rubles
Tatarstan has adjusted its forecast for socio-economic development taking into account the current year's values, enterprise indicators, and ongoing sanctions. Thus, the republic's gross regional product for 2025 had to be reduced by 1.5 percentage points, to 102.9%, although the nominal volume of GRP is still almost a trillion rubles higher than the previous forecast — 5.3 trillion rubles. The data was announced at a meeting of the Tatarstan State Council’s Committee of the Republic of Tatarstan on Social Policy. As the speakers noted, despite the restrictions, organisations continue to develop, rebuild logistics and sales markets.
GRP at 5.3 trillion rubles
The committee meeting opened with a forecast for the socio-economic development of Tatarstan for the next three years. First Deputy Minister of Economy of the Republic of Tatarstan Oleg Pelevin reported that the document was formed taking into account external and internal factors, ensuring the implementation of national development goals of the country and the tasks set by the rais of the republic in his speech.
“In the context of unprecedented sanctions and current restrictions, enterprises and organisations of the Republic continue to develop their production, maintain high investment activity, rebuild logistics and sales markets, implement import substitution projects,” he noted.
This year, core enterprises of the Republic of Tatarstan received 55 billion rubles in federal government support measures, SMEs — about 60 billion. Economic growth in the republic for the first eight months remains at 101.7%. The dynamics in the extraction of minerals in the context of commitments with OPEC+ is offset by the growth of manufacturing, primarily mechanical engineering, petrochemicals and the food industry, as well as an increase in the volume of construction and road works in connection with the implementation of large infrastructure investment projects and the consumer sector in the context of rising wages, the speaker said.
The gross regional product of the Republic of Tatarstan in 2025 will amount to 102.9% in comparable prices to the previous year, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous forecast, in 2026 — 102.6%, or 0.3 percentage points higher, in 2027 — 102.7%. At the same time, the nominal volume of GRP next year will amount to 5,289.6 billion rubles, or 935.2 billion rubles higher than the previous forecast, in 2026 — 5,569.9 billion (+950.1 billion rubles). The GRP volume in 2027 is projected at 5,845.5 billion rubles. As Pelevin pointed out, the review is due to the clarification of the assessment of indicators for the current year, projected indicators of enterprises and the impact of ongoing sanctions restrictions.
“In investment projects, it is important to create predictable conditions for business”
Workforce productivity in 2025 will grow to 102.9% (in the previous version of the forecast — 104.4%), in 2026 — 102.5% (previously — 102.2%), in 2027 — 102.3%. The data is formed taking into account the projected indicators of the leading enterprises of the republic, the implementation of investment projects and the introduction of new production capacities.
The industrial production index in the new year is projected at 103.1% of the previous year, which is 1 percentage point lower than the previous forecast version, in 2026 — 102.3%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous forecast version, in 2027 — 102.5%. The main contribution will be made by the oil and gas chemical and mechanical engineering complexes, energy with the progressive development of other industries. The volume of industrial production in 2025 will amount to 5,546.8 billion rubles, which is 442.8 billion rubles higher than the value of the previous forecast version, in 2026 — 5,750.6 billion rubles, which is 370.8 billion rubles higher than the previous forecast version. In 2027 — 5,970.5 billion rubles.
The volume of agricultural output in the new year will amount to 322.6 billion rubles, which is 7.1 billion rubles lower than the previous forecast version, in 2026 — 326.7 billion rubles, which is 9.2 billion rubles lower than the previous forecast version, in 2027 — 331.0 billion rubles. In 2025, the volume of agricultural output will reach 100.8% (in the previous forecast version — 101.9%). In 2026-2027, the annual growth rate of agricultural output is envisaged in comparable prices at the level of 101.3% (in the previous forecast version in 2026 it was predicted at the level of 101.9%), the Deputy Head of the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Tatarstan reported.
The volume of investments in fixed capital in 2025 will amount to 1,487.2 billion, which is 353.5 billion higher than the previous forecast version, in 2026 — 1,638.0 billion, or 376.3 billion higher, in 2027 — 1,802.4 billion rubles. The growth rate of investments in fixed assets is projected at 103.8% in 2025 (in the previous version — 103.7%), in 2026 — 104.6% (previously — 106.4%), in 2027 — 105.4%. Profit in 2025 will amount to 745.2 billion, or 109.1 billion rubles higher, in 2026 — 755.8 billion rubles, which is 81.6 billion higher, in 2027 — 784 billion rubles.
“Amid high interest rates, we need to stimulate the growth of private investment, primarily in the technological sectors of the economy. To do this, it is important to both create predictable conditions for business and correctly distribute risks between investors and the state in specific projects,” Pelevin noted.
The most important factor in ensuring the forecast, according to him, is scientific and technological development, the president has set the task of increasing spending on scientific research and development, increasing the share of domestic goods and services. From 1 January 2025, new federal support measures for organisations that invest in expanding production and new technologies will come into force.
The forecast for the volume of construction work in 2025 has been increased by 166.9 billion rubles — to 876.4 billion rubles, in 2026 — by 201.5 billion rubles, to 950.6 billion rubles, in 2027 — 1,033.1 billion rubles. The volume of contract work is projected to be 102.0% in 2025 (101.0% in the previous version), 103.0% in 2026 (101.8% in the previous version), and 104.0% in 2027. In the next three years, it is planned to deliver 9,625 square metres of housing.
Retail turnover in 2025 will amount to 1,729.8 billion rubles (up 205.7 billion rubles), or 103.6% (103.5% in the previous version), and 1,870.1 billion rubles in 2026 (up 223.3 billion rubles), or 103.5% (103.6% in the previous version). In 2027 — 2,009.6 billion rubles, or 103.1%.
The payroll fund in Tatarstan, according to the forecast, will amount to 1,181.4 billion rubles in 2025 (in the previous version of the forecast — 1,007.0 billion rubles), in 2026 –1,269.9 billion rubles (in the previous version of the forecast — 1,080.5 billion rubles), in 2027 — 1,358.8 billion rubles. The registered unemployment rate (at the end of the year) in 2025-2027 is projected at 0.2%. The number of unemployed is projected at 3,900-4,100 people. As of this 1 September, 358,000 self-employed people were registered in the republic, while the share of economically active people is 57%.
This year, the implementation of national projects within the May decrees of the president of the Russian Federation from 2018-2020 is being completed. Tatarstan is participating in 13 national projects worth 35.4 billion rubles.
Over 62 billion rubles — for social policy
Deputy Minister of Finance of the Republic of Tatarstan Gela Gerasimova reported on the draft law on the budget of the republic for 2025-2027. The speaker explained how calculations were made on the forecast of individual taxes and proposals from municipalities on the formation of the revenue side of local budgets were considered when forming the treasury, together with colleagues from the tax and industry ministries.
Due to the growth in the number of taxpayers and the taxable base, it is proposed to increase the revenue side of the Tatarstan budget in 2024 by 54.6 billion, and the expenditure side by 39.2 billion. These are mainly expenses related to the renovation of social and engineering infrastructure, as well as roads in Kazan in preparation for the BRICS Summit. The treasury deficit will be reduced by 15.3 billion. Taking into account all the proposals, the total budget of Tatarstan for the current year is projected to be: revenue — 484.5 billion rubles, expenditure — 485.8 billion, deficit — 1.36 billion. The parameters for 2025 and 2026 will not change, said head of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tatarstan Radik Gaizatullin.
“The expenditures of the budget of the Republic of Tatarstan under the Social Policy section are planned for 2025 in the amount of 62.3 billion rubles, including 62.1 billion from the budget of the Republic of Tatarstan, 232 million from local budgets. The expenditures will ensure the provision of social support measures to certain categories of citizens: veterans of labour, home front workers, rehabilitated, repressed citizens, pensioners, citizens with children, orphans, large families. 29.7 billion have been allocated for these purposes, the speaker specified.
After reviewing the draft law, the committee members noted that one of the main tasks of the budget policy of the Republic of Tatarstan for 2025-2027 is to fulfil all previously adopted social obligations of the republic, the provision of social support to the population with a low income, families with children while simultaneously increasing the targeting of social assistance to citizens in objective need.
In addition, the meeting participants pointed out the need to allocate additional funds to provide medicines to citizens with rare diseases, low-protein food products for children diagnosed with phenylketonuria, rehabilitation of working citizens after inpatient treatment in a health resort and other social tasks. In particular, Chairperson of the State Council Committee on Social Policy Svetlana Zakharova inquired about how the issue of providing sick children with ventilators at home is being resolved. Deputy Head of the Committee Olga Voronova reported on the implementation of projects in patriotic education of children. Deputy Liliya Mavrina was concerned about the problem of financing new youth policy institutions that appeared this year.
Director of the Federal Mandatory Health Insurance Alsu Miftakhova delivered a report on the fund's budget, which in 2025 will grow to 85.9 billion rubles, or by 6.3 billion (+8%). Expenses for the implementation of the territorial compulsory medical insurance programme are estimated at 74.6 billion and are provided by a subsidy from the federal insurance budget. As the speaker noted, Tatarstan residents now spend less time waiting for free medical care under the compulsory medical insurance policy, although in some institutions the waiting list reaches 12 months.