Russian car market is emerging from the crisis
Sales of new cars in the country are growing faster than forecasts and even exceed pre-Covid figures
The sales of new cars in Russia exceed the pre-Covid figures, which indicates that the car market and buyers have adapted to the new conditions. Cars from China, which have replaced Western brands, are predictably among the sales leaders, but Lada still holds first place. The sales of new cars in Tatarstan exceed the national average in terms of dynamics. What cars are in demand in Tatarstan in 2024, whether car prices will continue to rise in price, and whether the increase in the key rate affects this market — in the review of Realnoe Vremya.
Cars are getting more expensive, car market is growing
The market for new passenger cars in Russia has grown by 65% in 8 months of 2024 — more than 1 million cars have been sold, Avtostat reports. Such indicator was initially forecast to be achieved only by the end of 2024.
The growth of the new car market in Russia, which we have been observing for several months in a row, is caused by several factors at once. Including by the expectation of an increase in the recycling fee, which, as it is known from the latest news, will increase significantly from October this year, commented Tatyana Akimova, the executive director of Automarketolog company.
At the same time, the market growth this year significantly exceeded the indicators of the pre-Covid year 2019, when slightly less than one million new passenger cars were sold in the same 8-month period.
The next increase in the Central Bank's key rate, which occurred in September, has not yet radically cooled the market, she says. “On the contrary, the car market grew by the news about a key rate increase. The logic is the same as with the recycling fee, expecting an increase in car prices due to an increase in the key rate, consumers were in a hurry to buy cars at the old prices," the expert explains.
According to our forecasts, September will also show good results in the car market, and its gradual deceleration will begin in October. However, for the whole year we expect sales of 1.4 million cars, which will be significantly higher (at least 10%) than the result of 2023, she forecasts.
Sales in Tatarstan exceed Russian figures
In Tatarstan, 43,252 new passenger cars were sold in 8 months, which is by 76% higher than last year's result (24,552 cars). The dynamics of the growth of the new car market in the region exceeded all-Russian indicators, Tatyana Akimova noted.
The Chinese have firmly established themselves as the leaders of new car sales in Tatarstan, but Lada retains the first place — in 8 months AvtoVAZ sold 15,324 cars in the republic. Haval is in second place in sales (5,170 cars sold). Third place belongs to Chery (4,264 cars). Geely (3,268 cars) and Changan (2,941 cars) are also among the top 5 brands in the Tatarstan car market in January-August of this year.
Top 5 car brands in Tatarstan for 8 months of 2024
№ | Brand | Number of cars sold |
1 | Lada | 15324 |
2 | Haval | 5170 |
3 | Chery | 4264 |
4 | Geely | 3268 |
5 | Changan | 2941 |
Automarketolog's data
Based on data about calls and in ads published on Avto.ru, it was found that the share of Chinese brands has increased from 32% to 72% since January 2023. The most popular brands, according to Auto.ru data, are Exeed, Geely and Chery. More than 83% of the offers are for crossovers, another 9% of ads are for sedans, and pickups quite unexpectedly climbed to third place, their share increased to 4.5%.
Most popular 'Chinese' models in Tatarstan
№ | Models | Price |
1 | Jetour T2 | 3.99 million rubles |
2 | Geely Monjaro | 4.69 million rubles |
3 | Chery Arrizo 8 | 3.36 million rubles |
4 | Changan UNI-K | 4.2 million rubles |
6 | Geely Atlas | 3.44 million rubles |
Avto.ru data
Car prices will change throughout the fourth quarter, increasing by 2-3% monthly. As a result, the impact of increased recycling fee will average 10-12%, Karaulov forecasts.
“Across our network, we saw a revival in sales before the increase in the key rate and the increase in the recycling fee. Obviously, this is due to some customers who postpone the decision to buy a car from October-November to the third quarter," he commented on the surge in sales.
Price increases may not slow down the car market
In the months remaining until the end of 2024, the situation with car sales will depend on several factors and, first of all, on how government regulation of this area will change, Baranov believes.
“If any steps are taken that will lead to an increase in the cost of cars, then this can both reduce consumer activity and spur it, for example, in relation to domestic cars," he explains. “It is unknown how foreign car manufacturers will act, how they will change prices, because someone can increase them, and someone can leave them unchanged. We also should not forget that usually at the end of the year manufacturers vacate warehouses for cars of the new model year and they can offer discounts, which will interest buyers and affect sales. A lot will depend on the behaviour of buyers themselves, what their incomes will be, as well as what banks will offer them in matters of car loans.”