Rustam Minnikhanov: ‘It is important to form a safety margin to cover the deficit’
The Tatarstan Cabinet of Ministers discussed the forecast for the socio-economic development of the republic for 2025-2027
On 6 September, the Tatarstan Cabinet of Ministers discussed finances ahead of Financier's Day, which is celebrated on 8 September. Participants in the meeting chaired by the Prime Minister of the Republic Alexey Pesoshin where Rais of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov took part named the reasons for the budget deficit, which in 2025 and 2026 will exceed 13 billion rubles. He also noted the growing shortage of personnel, which is occurring against the background of low official unemployment, and discussed how to compensate for the “losses” associated with the curtailment of a number of national projects and changes in Russian tax legislation. More details are in a report of Realnoe Vremya.
Deficit of 13 billion
The total volume of tax and non-tax revenues of the budget of Tatarstan for 2025 is projected to be 512.1 billion rubles, First Deputy Minister of Finance of the Republic of Tatarstan and Director of the Treasury Department Marat Fayzrakhmanov said at a Cabinet meeting dedicated to the forecast of the republic's socio-economic development for 2025-2027.
The volume of budget revenues of Tatarstan for 2026 should be 542.5 billion rubles, for 2027 — 570.2 billion. Revenues from income tax in 2025 may amount to 128 billion, in 2026 and 2027, respectively, 130.3 billion and 135.6 billion. The main share of budget revenues — 36.3% — will be provided by revenues from personal income tax, which is projected at the level of 186 billion rubles in 2025, 199.9 billion in 2026 and 213.8 billion in 2027.
The total volume of consolidated budget expenditures is planned at 525.6 billion rubles in 2025, 555.5 billion in 2026, and 582.6 billion in 2027. The consolidated budget deficit for 2025 is projected at 13.5 billion rubles, for 2026 — 13 billion, and for 2027 — 12.4 billion.
Tatarstan Prime Minister Alexey Pesoshin noted that thanks to the stable operation of enterprises and organizations, federal and republican support measures, the republic's economy is showing growth:
“The priority is the quality of life”
“As of 1 August, the budget (Editor’s note: for 2024) in terms of revenues was executed at 71% of the planned annual indicators,” stated head of the Tatarstan government Alexey Pesoshin. “Please note that despite the positive dynamics of revenues in general: tax revenues, compared to the same period last year, decreased by 10.4 billion rubles.”
The prime minister of the Republic of Tatarstan also noted that at the beginning of August, tax arrears in the republic reached 12.2 billion rubles, and called for measures to reduce them.
“Improving the quality of life of every resident is a priority of the republic's socio-economic policy,” emphasised Aleksey Pesoshin. “During the forecast period, we will have to solve a number of systemic issues, primarily within the framework of the implementation of new national projects, state and republican programs and other activities aimed at strengthening the socio-economic potential of Tatarstan.”
It is expected that the growth of budget expenditures in connection with the increase in the minimum wage in Tatarstan will amount to 5.9 billion rubles in 2025, 9.9 billion in 2026, and 6.2 billion in 2027.
The budget will be implemented through state programmes, the share of which in 2025 expenses will be 91.3%.
Investments are key
“This year, the republic’s systemically important organisations received federal support measures in the amount of about 53 billion rubles. Small and medium-sized businesses were supported in the amount of more than 54 billion rubles,” Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Tatarstan Midkhat Shagiakhmetov told the meeting participants.
According to him, in 2025, the gross regional product is projected at 102.9%, while the largest share in the structure of the republic’s economy will traditionally be in industry: if all enterprise plans are implemented, the industrial production index in 2025 will reach 103.1%. The agricultural production index in 2025 should be 100.8%, and the growth rate in 2026-2026, according to the industry state program, is 101.3%.
The volume of construction work in the republic in 2025 should amount to 102-104% of the previous period. In 2025-2027, it is expected to deliver 9.425 million square metres of housing.
Midkhat Shagiakhmetov pointed out that one of the main factors in ensuring the forecast for socio-economic development is the implementation of investment projects. According to preliminary estimates, the volume of investments in fixed capital of enterprises in Tatarstan in 2024 should amount to 1.335 trillion rubles, in 2025 — 1.487 trillion.
The deputy prime minister also drew attention to changes in federal legislation that affected taxes on profits, personal income taxes and the simplified system:
“Changes in increasing tax rates will not lead to an increase in revenues to the consolidated budget of the republic, since the entire amount of the increase will be credited only to the federal budget.”
At the same time, he emphasized, the budget will be affected by two more factors — an increase in the minimum wage and a decrease in the level of funding for federal programs and national projects from the federal budget.
Where to get personnel?
The minister of economy pointed out that the share of low-skilled workforce in Tatarstan is lower than the Russian average (10.7% versus 11.2%). However, from the data he provided, it follows that the republic lags behind other regions in this regard (in Samara Region, this figure is 10.4%, and in Tyumen Region and Perm Krai — only 8%).
Shagiakhmetov proposed continuing the implementation of comprehensive measures to ensure interaction between educational institutions and the real sector of the economy, including through maximum participation in the new Staff national project. And he pointed out that we have reserves in terms of increasing the automation of production processes and, as a result, reducing the share of low-skilled workforce:
“For a number of enterprises in the current conditions, robotisation, automation and optimisation of production processes are not just an increase in efficiency, but a requirement for further work!”
Deficit-free budget
According to the forecast, the budget revenues of the Territorial Fund of Medical Insurance of Tatarstan in 2025 should amount to 85.9 billion rubles, the fund's Director Alsu Miftakhova reported at a meeting of the republican Cabinet of Ministers dedicated to the forecast of the republic's socio-economic development for 2025-2027. Revenues for 2026 and 2027 are planned in the amount of 91.7 and 92.6 billion, respectively.
“Expenditures on the implementation of the state guarantee programme for 2025 are projected to be 85.9 billion rubles,” Miftakhova said. “Of these, 74.6 billion are provided for the implementation of compulsory medical insurance programmes, 11.3 billion — for activities not included in the basic compulsory medical insurance programme, including the treatment of socially significant diseases. Expenditures on paying for medical care provided to our residents outside the republic, taking into account the dynamics of the current year, are projected to be 1.9 billion rubles.”
The subvention of the Federal Fund is projected to be 73.4 billion rubles with an increase of 5 billion rubles, or 7.3%, compared to the current year. 28% of the subvention of the Federal Fund, or 20.5 billion rubles, are contributions to compulsory medical insurance for the non-working population from the budget of the Republic of Tatarstan. Interbudget transfers from the budget of the republic are planned in the amount of 11.3 billion rubles.
Inter-budget transfers from territorial funds of the regions of Russia are planned to be 1.197 billion in 2025, 1.277 billion in 2026 and 1.363 in 2027, and inter-budget transfers from the budget of Tatarstan, respectively, in the amount of 11.3 billion, 12.2 billion and 13.1 billion.
“We need to work more actively”
Summarising the results of the meeting, Rais of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov noted the importance of maintaining positive dynamics in the economy and pointed out that the industrial production index of the republic, which currently stands at 101.5%, would be higher “if not for the restrictions on oil production.” He called for maintaining the given vector of economic development, ensuring by the end of the year, the gross republican product in the amount of 5 trillion rubles.
“The [budget] deficit currently amounts to 13.5 billion rubles,” said Rustam Minnikhanov. “It is important to form a safety margin to cover it. It is necessary to ensure strict financial discipline, effective budget execution, maximum attraction of federal funds, as well as active use of reserves. I believe that we need to work more actively to attract federal financial resources. We have a fairly large tax debt, we need to reduce this debt, we need to work more actively.”
Rais Tatarstan also pointed out the need to form draft laws on the budget of the Republic of Tatarstan, laws on the budget of the Regional Fund of Compulsory Medical Insurance and decisions on municipal budgets within the planned timeframes.