Pavel Podlesny: ‘We don’t leave the treaty, we don’t terminate but suspend it’
Opinion of a famous political expert on the USA about the consequences of the suspension of the nuclear agreement
These days Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered to suspend the treaty with the USA on cleaning up weapons-grade plutonium. 'Unfriendly actions of the US' became the reason. What a treaty? What consequences can the bilateral relations have? In order to understand the situation better, Realnoe Vremya talked to a famous political expert and head of the Centre of the US-Russia Relations of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Pavel Podlesny.
Putin's unreal conditions
Mr Podlesny, what a treaty is it? What is the gist of the treaty? Have the obligations been ever met?
The treaty was signed a long time ago – in 2000. Its gist is that many types of armaments reduced, while the fuel – plutonium – remained. What can be done with it? It was decided to dispose of it and make fuel for stations, etc. Corresponding enterprises needed to be built in both countries. Such an enterprise was built here, it is working. Meanwhile, the Americans did not finish the construction of their factory. This is not the point. They decided not to dispose of it but keep it in a special storage. In the end, we faced what happens in our history – only we meet the obligations. It is extremely unprofitable because in some circumstances this plutonium can be taken out from underground storages and used for nuclear bomb production. This is why President Putin said it threatened our strategic stability. I think it is the main reason why we decided to suspend the agreement. We don't leave it, we don't terminate but suspend it. Naturally, it is connected with a general bad state of our relations. According to Putin's order, we will be ready to renew it if the United States of America repeals the Magnitsky List, lift the sanctions, pay compensations, reduce their military presence in Eastern European countries – NATO countries, etc.
'Many types of armaments reduced, while the fuel – plutonium – remained. What can be done with it? It was decided to dispose of it and make fuel for stations, etc. Corresponding enterprises needed to be built in both countries. Such an enterprise was built here, it is working. Meanwhile, the Americans did not finish the construction of their factory.' Photo: svpressa.ru
Do you really think the USA will lift the sanctions, pay compensations and will make concessions?
Nobody will lift the sanctions. On the contrary, new sanctions can be expected. They are imposed almost every two months. But in diplomacy, conditions that may be strict and almost real are set at times. Nevertheless, it is a kind of a statement of the position – setting conditions for the future.
Who is financing this programme on cleaning up weapons-grade plutonium?
Very countries.
That is to say, equally both Washington and Moscow?
Yes, the state does in the US, here it is also done by the state. No private investments can be made here.
'Let them choose a new president first'
Won't the conditions that Russia set result in the termination of this treaty?
No. We said it clearly: 'We suspend it'. We are not going to terminate it. I will wait for the Americans to have a friendlier position. No one knows when it happens. But it is known. It happens in diplomacy. For example, the Japanese have been requiring to meet their conditions for 50 years. It concerns the Kuril Islands. So what? The Americans also tell: 'We can lift the sanctions if you return Crimea to Ukraine'. Naturally, we are not going to return it. The Americans fully understand it, but it is their condition.
Will there by further cooling in relatinos between our countries?
We have reached a very big complication. But now it is difficult to speak about forecasts. Let them choose a new president, form a new administration, formulate their new tasks first. Then we can look for the ways to stop this confrontation and cooperation where it is possible. I think we will be in contact concerning Syria too. No break-up is expected, it is a lie. It won't happen.
'Let them choose a new president, form a new administration, formulate their new tasks first. Then we can look for ways to stop this confrontation and cooperation where it is possible.' Photo: wnd.com
Moscow has had new contradictions with Washington regarding the Syrian conflict...
Yes, contradictions have always existed and will exist. Yes, our and American diplomats tried to find a solution [Editor's Note: on Syria]. A corresponding agreement was signed. But there is a disorder in Washington now. Not all people liked these agreements: militants, intelligence are against them. This is why in a certain situation the American administration was unable to meet this agreement.
Who will win the war?
Mr Podlesny, what other countries have reserves of plutonium except Russia and the USA?
Big nuclear states. It goes without saying, all the states who have nuclear weapon have plutonium.
American expert Loren Thompson forecasted that in case of a military conflict between Russia and NATO, our country will win. What do you think about this forecast?
I doubt this conflict will happen. No one needs it — with neither ordinary nor nuclear weapon. Another thing is that when there is escalation, events that nobody has planned can take place. But I don't believe this or that side will go to war against the other one conscientiously. It is very risky, to put it mildly.
The USA is looking for new allies among the former Soviet countries. Georgia and Ukraine are ready to become NATO members. Who else will do it?
Ukraine is under external control of the USA now. I doubt that Ukraine will become a NATO member state. I think Ukraine and Georgia don't have chances, not to mention other countries.