Russian Statistics Service: COVID-19 death rate in Tatarstan soars 26 times

However, most people who died from coronavirus in the republic are classified as “Perhaps, COVID-19. Virus not identified”

Russian Statistics Service: COVID-19 death rate in Tatarstan soars 26 times
Photo: Maxim Platonov

In November 2021, Russians died from coronavirus three times more often than a year earlier. Moreover, a third of all deaths are from the virus, not for some other reason. In some Russian regions, deaths from the virus rose tenfold: the Russian Federal Statistics Service registered 26 times more deaths from coronavirus or “unidentified virus” than a year earlier in November 2021 alone, in neighbouring Bashkortostan, the growth is 44 times bigger. Moreover, the Statistics Service concluded Tatarstan had a lot of deaths from the unidentified coronavirus, which is 80% of the cases. In 2021, Tatarstan already lost 18,400 citizens, while Russia did almost a million, due to a sudden excess of deaths compared to the birth rate. There is hope for new families — their number in Russia in general and Tatarstan in particular augmented.

In November 2021, coronavirus killed three times more Russians than a year earlier

In November 2021, three times more Russians died from coronavirus than in November 2020. The Russian Federal Statistics Service’s data shows it. The entry where COVID-19 is “the main cause of death” had 25,107 Russians in 2020, in 2021, the number was 80,126. The growth was over 300%.

But the devil is in details. This entry in the table of the Statistics Service is divided into two: “COVID-10, virus identified” and “Perhaps, COVID-19, virus unidentified.” In Russia in general, the COVID-19 virus was identified in 71,187 cases, another 8,939 deaths were considered as cases where the virus wasn’t identified (such “probable” deaths from COVID-19 more than doubled).

This data doesn’t yet include other deaths where, according to the Statistics Service’s data, though COVID-19 isn’t the main cause of deaths “but had a significant impact on the development of fatal complications of the disease.” Their number in November is 7,401. Interestingly, the number of such deaths over the year reduced more than 1,5 times. Perhaps, this indicates that the delta variant kills “more accurately” and faster than previous variants of the virus — so it simply doesn’t have the time to impact the development of fatal complications of the disease. However, it isn’t excluded that the numbers went down because doctors started to more successfully fight against COVID-19, even in the case of the more severe delta variant.

It isn’t excluded that the numbers went down because doctors started to more successfully fight against COVID-19. Photo: Maxim Platonov

Volga Federal District ranks second in coronavirus deaths

The biggest number of deaths from coronavirus in November 2021 was in the Central Federal District (more than 25,000), particularly in Moscow (6,563) and Moscow Oblast (4,334). However, the Volga Federal District is already second where 16,741 people died from the novel infection in November alone (just 3,255 deaths in November 2020). Nizhny Novgorod, Samara and Saratov Oblasts are “record holders” where more than 2,000 people died.

It is noteworthy that in reality not the central part of Russia but the Volga region, Southern Federal District and the Caucasus suffered from the new wave of the epidemic. In Southern Caucasus Federal District, for instance, the number of deaths from coronavirus in November 2021 rose seven times compared to last year’s November (this is ample evidence of the high fatality rate of the new variant), in the Volga Federal District and Southern Federal District, it did five times.

Meanwhile, the average rise in deaths across Russia was threefold.

Numbers in Main Cause of Death in Tatarstan in November 2021 rose 26 times compared to November 2020

In this sense, the Russian Statistics Service shows the most serious situation in some regions where the number of deaths from the first entry (where COVID-19 is the main cause of death) in the last month of autumn 2021 considerably increased.

For instance, in Tatarstan, deaths from the novel coronavirus infection (together with the identified and unidentified virus), according to the Statistics Service, rose 26 times: from 71 in November 2020 to 1,870 in November 2021. Mortality in Mordovia also increased 26 times, in Penza it grew 25 times, but Bashkortostan broke records — 44,6 times.

However, if we have a look at the division of this entry into deaths from the identified and unidentified virus, Tatarstan shows Russia’s biggest step towards the unidentified virus. The virus was confirmed only in 308 cases (the growth is impressive, just 19 in November 2020), while 1,562 deaths were considered “Perhaps, COVID-19, virus unidentified.” And this number rose in Tatarstan 30 times. Another 114 people in the Republic of Tatarstan died from diseases or symptoms that are anyway linked with COVID-19 (three times less than a year earlier). However, most of them (107) are considered as deaths where the coronavirus “didn’t have a significant impact on the development of fatal complications of the disease.” But the Statistics Service anyway counted them.

The situation is similar in other regions too. “Perhaps, COVID-19, virus unidentified” accounted for the biggest share of deaths in the Volga Federal District. In Chuvashia, it reached 62% (395 people died, “Perhaps, COVID-19,” 243 certainly did from it). And this share in Tatarstan alone was 83,5%, since in the majority of other Volga regions as well as in other regions of the Federation in general it is significantly smaller, the main cause of death in documents of the Russian Statistics Service is indicated precisely as identified coronavirus.

A third of all Russians died from coronavirus in November

The same Russian Statistics Service says that almost a third of all deaths in Russia in November were from the coronavirus infection. For instance, just in 11 months of 2021, 257,300 Russians died, more than 80,000 of them passed away due to COVID-19.

The worst situation was in several regions of the country. For instance, 41% of all deaths in November 2021 in Voronezh Oblast were because of the coronavirus. In Khakassia, the number was 42%. The coronavirus (or the unidentified virus) accounted for 30% of all deaths in Tatarstan in November: the republic lost 6,237 citizens, of which 1,870, if we believe the Statistics Service, were caused by the coronavirus.

Natural morality in Tatarstan in November 2021 was 2,763 people, 3,474 babies were born in Tatarstan during the same month (the number last November was a bit bigger, 3,528, but this didn’t save from the death of 2,266 people).

Considering more than 1,800 people who died from coronavirus or a similar virus, we can conclude that it did influence the decline in the population of Tatarstan, first of all.

Nevertheless, the situation is almost the same across the country: the natural decline of the population (likely to be not natural because there wasn’t such a hike in deaths before 2020) was 142,300 people a month. This happened mainly because the number of deaths over the year grew by nearly 40,000 people. While the birth rate in the country on average anyway rose by 2% in November (from 112,900 babies to almost 115,000).

Considering more than 1,800 people who died from coronavirus or a similar virus, we can conclude that it did influence the decline in the population of Tatarstan, first of all. Photo: Maxim Platonov

Tatarstan lost 18,400 citizens from January to November 2021

But not only November saves the demography. In 11 months of 2021 in total, 21,5% fewer babies were born in Russia compared to the same period in 2020. While 2,2 million people died (1,8 million during the same period last year). However, if we compare the birth and death rates, the situation is by far worse: in fact, Russia lost 945,000 people in 2021, December excluded. This is the difference between the general number of deaths and births.

Tatarstan alone lost almost 18,400 people in 11 months of 2021: 37,500 children were born in the republic in 11 months of 2021 (nearly 38,000 last year), in other words, the fall in the birth rate is obvious, 55,800 people died (48,500 did during the same period last year).

Hope for new families

The hope is pinned on positive marriage statistics. Firstly, there were 20% more marriages from January to November 2021: almost 860,000 against 716,600 during the same period last year.

Secondly, though the number of divorces increased, it is not significant: from 504,800 divorces in 11 months of 2020 to 589,000 this year. So the number of new families in Russia during this period increased by 270,000. All regions in general demonstrate such positive statistics, including Tatarstan where the number of marriages in 11 months of 2021 exceeded the number of divorces by 9,200. So 22,875 new families were created in Tatarstan (18,000 last year), only 13,600 couples got divorced in the republic.

In Tatarstan, the number of marriages in 11 months of 2021 exceeded the number of divorces by 9,200. Photo: Maxim Platonov

However, there is a fly in the ointment: compared to last year, the number of divorces in Tatarstan anyway grew as well as across the country because just 10,000 couples broke up last year.

Sergey Afanasyev
BashkortostanTatarstan