‘To Turkey — tomorrow!’: how much should the tour operators discount for the danger of a terrorist attack?

As you remember, Turkey was closed for organized tourism at the end of November of last year, after the Turkish fighter F-16 shot down the Russian bomber SU-24 near the Syrian-Turkish border on 24 November.

On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin announced a possible lifting of the ban on selling trips to Turkey, which was introduced in November of 2015. Let's imagine that in the coming months the official lifting of the ban was announced. It is quite easy to resume the sale of tours and send tourists to Turkey, Turkish hoteliers are looking forward to the Russians, the infrastructure of the resorts also remained unchanged. There are difficulties with the fact that the flight programme has already been planned out but it is also not so insurmountable problem — the airlines can (but with difficulty) quickly reorient their scheduled network. The security guarantees will be ensured by the Turkish authorities. So, does it worth going to Turkey and how to take into account the risks?

Terrible statistics: how often do the attacks occur in Turkey

The urgent problem — the terrorist attacks. Since the beginning of this year in Turkey there were 6 major terrorist attacks, 134 people were killed and 387 injured. This means that the attacks — it is already a systematic recurring phenomenon.

Source: the data from the media

Do not be confused, if the explosions occur in Istanbul or Ankara, then, for example, in the tourist areas or in the local airports they will not take place. Both in Istanbul and Ankara, terrorist attacks killed foreign tourists.

On the contrary, if the tourists will flood in, then these 'tourist places' can become a tempting target for terrorists. The terrorists, first of all, need a wide responce from their acts. Especially international.

The dynamics of explosions and the number of victims show us that intelligence services of Turkey cannot cope with the situation. There is no certainty that the attacks will subside in the near future.

Do not be confused, if the explosions occur in Istanbul or Ankara, then, for example, in the tourist areas or in the local airports they will not take place. Photo: haberlergazeteler.net

Will Turkey last without attacks until September?

Another interesting observation — an average interval between the attacks is 33 days. The longest interval between the attacks — 80 days.

If you want to be sure that the Turkish authorities have taken the situation under control, and thereby avoid this risk, then for the most fearless people the minimum interval of peaceful life in Turkey (without the attacks and from yesterday) — at least 34 days. If terrorist attacks during this time do not happen, then you can go. But the conservative approach dictates a different number — not less than 81 days (according to the longest interval). Of course, it is premature to tell that the risk has been eliminated but there is at least some solace. In other words, if by the end of September in Turkey there will be peaceful, so the authorities have learned how to cope. For an even more conservative estimate — at least a year without attacks.

However, the risk tolerance is different for everyone. Someone, for example, misses the Turkish hotels and airports. So much so that tomorrow they are ready to go there. But this raises a very interesting question: 'What discount should they demand to the prices of last year because Turkey is dangerous?'. It has sense: since in your country the terrorism is raging, then the trips must cost less. There must be a discount!

Turkey is equivalent to climbing Everest

In the conditions of permanent terrorism a holiday trip to Turkey is now equivalent to an extreme tour, where the risk to own life or health is very high. How much does such risk cost? In other words, how much should we demand for the risk to the price of a regular trip?

The task is difficult but not so unresolvable. To solve it, you can, for example, to equate the discount amount to a insurer premium when insuring extreme tours, such as mountain climbing. It is quite similar: for example, on Everest, about 4 people die in average every year. The insurers are usually very objective when assessing the size of a risk, so the discount to the regular price of a travel package (or a risk premium) should be more than the rate amount on a climber life insurance.

In the conditions of permanent terrorism a holiday trip to Turkey is now equivalent to an extreme tour. Photo: Maksim Platonov

A usual insurance for conventional tours is not considered here for obvious reasons.

There is the online calculator of such rates on life insurance of the mountain climbers. Choosing the climbing in Nepal on the following data: trip for 11 days, insurance coverage at $50 thousand and an additional accident insurance taking into account $10 thousand, — we will get the amount of the tariff 9.2 thousand rubles, or about $144.

This is a very roughly calculated amount of a risk premium or a minimum discount to any tour to Turkey in the near future (based on the old pricing 2015).

How much will it be to the cost of the tours in a percentage?

Let's take the data of the trips from Moscow in the prices for holidays in Turkey in August of 2015, all-inclusive for 10 days.

If to apply the cost of a 'climbing' risk premium at the amount of 9.2 thousand rubles, we see very average data of such discount to the prices of last year at 15% — 19.3%.

Again, if to apply the conservative approach, the trips should cost 20% cheaper from the prices of August of 2015. And this gives us the following table:

Of course, this is a very controversial approach, but it makes sense: if there is a risk — so the tours must cost less.