‘What kind of revival is this?’: mortgage issuance in Tatarstan jumps 38% amid tighter rules

October housing market frenzy

Demand for housing in the regions is recovering faster than in Moscow. A particularly notable spike in buyer activity has been recorded in Tatarstan. This conclusion was reached by analysts at CIAN after analysing data from the Central Bank of Russia on mortgage lending volumes in October.

Mortgage issuance in October in Tatarstan soared by an unprecedented, by current standards, 38%, according to CIAN’s analytical data. According to these figures, banks in the republic issued 4.1 thousand mortgage loans. At the same time, the average loan amount increased significantly — by 26% compared to October. The average mortgage cheque totalled 4.77 million rubles.

By these two indicators, Tatarstan outperformed other regions of the Volga Federal District, where the housing market is also showing signs of revival. In Bashkortostan, mortgage issuance reached the same 4.1 thousand loans, but the average loan amount was lower — 3.9 million rubles. Explosive mortgage growth of 38% was recorded in Mordovia, 33% in the Samara region, 30% in the Ulyanovsk region, Udmurtia and Mari El. In almost all regions of the Volga area, a noticeable increase in mortgage lending exceeding 20% is being recorded — with the exception of the Saratov region, where the dynamic was lower, within 10%.

The regions of the Volga Federal District showed higher demand because prices in Moscow have reached their growth limit. “The recovery in demand in the regions is taking place more actively than in metropolitan areas, where constraints include rapid price growth and shrinking supply: in Moscow and the Moscow region, where issuance grew by 18% in October, in St Petersburg and the Leningrad region — by 13%, and in the other regions — by 22%,” commented CIAN’s lead analyst Yelena Bobrovskaya.

Mortgage loan amounts have risen by 20%

For most regions of the Volga Federal District, the average issued loan amount reached around 4 million rubles. Only in Mordovia did borrowers exceed this threshold, approaching 4.5 million rubles. Tatarstan holds the absolute lead with 4.77 million rubles.

For comparison: the average loan size across Russia reached 4.62 million rubles — an all-time high. “In the new-build market it now stands at 5.8 million rubles (not a record — in summer 2022 it reached 6.1 million rubles, but later fell to 4.9 million before slowly increasing again). On the secondary market (+individual housing construction), it is 3.7 million rubles (a record high),” CIAN experts note.

They explain the growing momentum by “the high share of industry in economic structures, where wage growth remains strong (Tatarstan, Mordovia, Mari El, Udmurtia, Samara region).”

In total, 106 thousand mortgages were issued across the country in October 2025 — 21% more than a month earlier, according to CIAN’s study. “Among the growth factors are the traditional seasonal rise in demand, declining market mortgage rates, expectations of changes to family mortgage terms, and falling deposit rates (prompting people to shift savings from deposits back into the housing market),” the analysts pointed out.

Recovery is faster in the secondary housing market: issuance grew by 27% in one month (compared to 18% in the new-build market and 10% in individual housing construction). This segment has lower price growth than the new-build market and lacks alternatives to market-rate mortgages (except in cities where the family programme applies to ready-built housing). New-build transactions nationwide increased by 21% in October, and secondary-market transactions by 14%.

Buyers rush in anticipation of a potential rise in the family mortgage rate to 12%

“The number of issued mortgages increased amid talk of raising the family mortgage rate. The concessionary rate will likely rise from today’s 6% to 12% annually,” says the head of the real estate agency “Your Reliable Realtor and NLB”, Andrei Savelyev.

Family mortgage rules are tightening, which is why people are rushing to use the programme while they still can. “We observed similar frenzy in June 2024, when families were closing subsidised mortgages. Back then, people rushed to buy everything in sight,” he says.

According to him, the republic has relatively few families with children under seven who are eligible for family mortgages with a 20% down payment and who can afford them. The price per square metre in Kazan is quite high, so there are probably no more than 10–15% such families on the market. “And with the new year approaching, their number will most likely decrease,” he believes.

“The 12% family mortgage rate is still only being discussed,” countered the head of the Kazan real estate agency “Kvartet”, Rustem Safin. “Let us recall the words of the President of Russia, who described the 6% rate as fair and affordable for families. It is clear that the Finance Ministry wants to change this, but for now the law remains the same for everyone, and no amendments have been made.”

Nevertheless, the anxiety has led to queues in banks. Booking an appointment to submit mortgage applications has become difficult, even though the family mortgage limits have not been exhausted, the head of the agency noted.

The possibility that the rate for families with one child may rise to 12% was reported in November by the head of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Anatoly Aksakov. According to him, the bill introducing a differentiated family mortgage rate is expected to be adopted by the end of 2025. But families with two or three children will benefit, he clarified.

• for families with a third child, the rate will fall to 4% annually;
• for families with two children, the rate will remain at 6%;
• for families with one child, the rate may rise to 10% or 12%.

On the other hand, there is deferred demand. “July, August and September were practically ‘dead’ for us — as if nothing existed. So this deferred demand also played a role,” Savelyev pointed out. “What kind of revival is this? Of course not.”

Meanwhile, developers picked up on Aksakov’s statement about tightening the family mortgage terms and began improving their offers.

“Developers are fighting for the buyer as never before, designing proposals for any request,” says the president of the Tatarstan Guild of Realtors, Anastasia Golyasheva. “Extremely attractive discounts were available in Kazan’s new-build market until the end of October. For example, there were interesting offers in Siberovo.”

“Studios were priced around 6 million rubles until the end of October, and from November prices rose by another 20%,” she said. “Prices are rising. In the Privolzhsky district and in Usady, prices have increased by 2 million rubles, although over the previous nine months growth was slow — 50–80 thousand a month — and recently there has been a sharp rise,” the expert noted.