Tatarstan finds itself in the risk zone of heatwave impacts on public health

Each region has its own characteristic risks

The Higher School of Economics (HSE University), together with institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has released a three-year scientific project that represents a ranking of Russian regions based on the need to adapt to climate change. Researchers analysed six major risks:

1. The impact of heatwaves on the health of the urban population.
2. The impact of water stress on agriculture.
3. The impact of forest fires on forestry and terrestrial ecosystems.
4. The impact of permafrost degradation on the population and the housing and utilities sector.
5. The impact of extreme precipitation on the population and infrastructure.
6. The impact of cold waves on public health.

Experts are confident that such a ranking will help identify which dangers are most significant for each region and allow better preparation for them.

It is known that two “perspectives” were used in the analysis — national and regional. The national perspective covers the scale of the entire country and, accordingly, the risks in the context of the country as a whole. The regional one reflects the scale of risks specifically within each region.

“For the southern and central regions, the key threats are heatwaves and water stress, while Siberia and the Far East are most vulnerable to fires and permafrost degradation. The impact of heatwaves on the health of the urban population is most acute in the south and the central part of European Russia, in the Volga region and the Urals. High levels of water stress risk are typical for the south and European part of Russia, the Urals and the black-earth regions,” the study states.

According to the full text of the report available to Realnoe Vremya, Tatarstan entered the top 10 regions where cold is less harmful to people. In terms of reducing the risk of cold waves affecting public health, the republic ranks 10th nationally under the most optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6), which assumes limiting warming to within 2°C by the end of the century.

Tatarstan in the risk zone for the impact of heatwaves on the population

According to the study, most regions at risk of heatwave impact are located in the Volga region, the centre and south of European Russia, as well as in the southern Urals and southern Western Siberia. The document notes that abnormal heat negatively affects people — mortality rates rise during heatwaves.

Under the 2°C warming scenario, Tatarstan was included in this group of regions in the national assessment, though not in the top 10, as with cold risk reduction, but in the top 21. Among other regions are Moscow, Chelyabinsk, Kemerovo, Irkutsk, and Orenburg regions, as well as Krasnodar Krai, Stavropol Krai, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Bashkortostan and Crimea.

“These are regions with large urban populations, but with a smaller proportion of them compared to other regions,” the document states.

It is noteworthy that Alexander Chernokulsky and Igor Makarov, who compiled the ranking, had already published a scientific paper in 2023 titled “The Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Economy: Regional Ranking by the Need for Adaptation.” In that study, Tatarstan was also identified among regions at risk from heat. From the national perspective, the republic ranked 11th under the most favourable temperature-rise scenario, and nearly closed the top 25 regionally — ranking 23rd.

In the same paper, in the table “Detailed Ranking of Russian Regions by the Need for Adaptation to the Impact of Heatwaves on Urban Health,” Tatarstan ranked 6th in terms of vulnerability. For all other risks, the republic was outside the top 50.

Climate in Russia is changing faster than in the rest of the world

Adaptation to natural and climatic risks plays a key role in ensuring the sustainable development of each territory of the country. According to experts, the climate in Russia is changing faster than in the rest of the world.

“Therefore, our country and its regions need tools that allow integrating the assessment of such risks and adaptation to them into strategic management. The first step is to assess and map risks, taking into account the unevenness of socio-economic development and differences in natural conditions,” said Nikolay Kurichev, Dean of the Faculty of Geography and Geoinformation Technologies at HSE University, during the presentation of the report.

The ranking provides assessments at the regional level, but in the future, according to the presenters, the methodology will be expanded to cover municipalities and other territories of interest to government bodies and commercial organisations.