Trillion for vehicles: average bill and car sales have increase
In 10 months of 2023, Russia set a record for the volume of car loans in the entire history of observations — Russians have accumulated loans of more than one trillion rubles. At the same time, Tatarstan dropped out of the top four regions in terms of car loans, dropping to fifth place. Krasnodar Krai has overtaken the republic. At the same time, Tatarstan retains one of the highest growth rates of car loans in Russia — 108.1% compared to the same period last year. It is quite expected that by the end of the year the republic will regain its lost positions. Why car loans are growing at a record rate and whether the year 2024 is going to be as successful for the automotive and banking sectors — in the review of the analytical service of Realnoe Vremya.
Records of 2021 have been broken
According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), Tatarstan dropped from fourth to fifth place in terms of car loan issuance in 10 months of 2023. In January-October, loans worth 45.9 billion rubles were issued in the republic. For comparison, in the same period last year, the volume of issuance amounted to 22.1 billion rubles.
The top five leaders in terms of car loans in Russia in 2023 also included: Moscow (93.3 billion rubles), Moscow Oblast (72.3 billion rubles), St. Petersburg (61.5 billion rubles), and Krasnodar Krai (47.5 billion rubles).
The growth dynamics of car loans in Tatarstan amounted to 108.1% compared to the same period last year. This is one of the highest indicators among the regions of Russia and the best in comparison with the leading regions: in Moscow, car loans increased by only 58.4%, in Moscow Oblast — by 71.7%, in St. Petersburg — by 68.2%, in Krasnodar Krai — by 86.3%. Only Rostov Oblast is ahead of Tatarstan in terms of dynamics — 109.1%.
In general, in Russia in January-October 2023, according to the NBKI, car loans were issued for more than 1 trillion rubles, or 88% more than in the same period last year. In January-October 2022 — 0.55 trillion rubles. Compared to the 10 months of 2021, their volume also increased, but less significantly — by 10.4%. In January-October 2021, they fell slightly short of a trillion — it was 0.93 trillion rubles.
NBKI also notes the growth of average car loan size, which also shows record values in 2023.
Growth rate slowed down in November
In November, Rosbank noted a slight slowdown in the volume of disbursements of about 10-15% compared to October.
In 2023, Rosbank has already issued more than 110 thousand car loans, which is 2.8 times more than in the same period last year. “If we talk about the amount, the growth is even higher, as the average amount of the loan issued is growing," Yakubchik stressed.
The main factor in the growth of credit market is the development of the car market itself. However, the imbalance of supply and demand still persists. “In case of an increase in car supplies and sales volumes from brands, the credit market will also receive an additional boost due to a larger base," the banker predicts. “Also, the continued increase in the cost of cars and the average check may affect the increase in lending volumes.”
Among the limiting factors, he identifies an increase in the key rate, which leads to an increase in the cost of loans.
At the same time, many joint programmes with brands have a reduced loan rate due to support from automakers, up to installments. Also, many banks have programmes in which the client can fix a reduced interest rate by simultaneously paying for the appropriate option, he recalled.
The market has grown due to the rise in price of cars
Against the background of high interest rates, we can expect a noticeable decrease in issuance volumes next year, he forecasts. The volume of issuance may return to the level of 2021. At the same time, in quantitative terms, the issues will sink more, but their decrease will be offset by a further increase in the average receipt in the segment.
In some months of 2023, there were one-time spikes in demand — as it was, for example, on the eve of the increase in recycling fee. The trend towards an increase in the key rate also, according to her observations, supported customer demand. Russians were afraid that loans would continue to rise in price.
While maintaining a high level of the key rate and high prices for vehicles, it is not easy for banks to maintain lending conditions that are comfortable for customers, therefore, in order to reduce the burden on borrowers, bankers will increase the loan terms.
The volume of deliveries of new cars from friendly jurisdictions continues to grow, work is underway to localise Chinese production and increase the volume of assembly from domestic brands, which as a result will lead to an increase in the supply of cars on the market and reduce their cost.
In the future, the number of car loans issued will grow at a higher rate than their volume in value terms, predicts Alina Davletova.