Experts forecast epidemic peak in Tatarstan and likelihood of Italian scenario

Experts forecast epidemic peak in Tatarstan and likelihood of Italian scenario

Let’s be optimistic?

InnoSTage Group of Companies headquartered in Kazan has developed mathematical models that forecast the development pace of the new COVID-19 coronavirus infection in Tatarstan.

They are created on the platform of the Situation Centre of the Republic of Tatarstan. They consider data of the Tatarstan Ministry of Health Care and Centre for Economic and Social Research of the Republic of Tatarstan under the Tatarstan Cabinet of Ministers — about the age of the population, number of self-isolated people and those who continue working (it is doctors, pharmacists, shop staff, the police and so on). To make the forecast, they also used data about the virus spread in other countries (especially where the situation develops according to the worst-case scenario).

The models were calculated with data as of 15 April when just 107 cases were registered in Tatarstan. 21 new cases were registered on 16 April, that’s to say, the total number of infections rose to 128.

The experts detected two scenarios. An optimistic scenario is clearly possible when the self-isolation regime is met and restrictive measures are taken, which have been in force in the Republic of Tatarstan since late March. According to this model, the peak is expected between 11 and 18 May — 12,800 people will fall ill in Tatarstan then.

The experts aren’t causing panic — their model shows that now Tatarstan has its own scenario of COVID-19 spread, and it is at least early to compare it with Italy or the USA — the situation is much better here at the moment.

It can get worse if guidelines aren’t followed

But the Italian scenario in Tatarstan is anyway possible. And then 358,252 residents of the republic can be infected, while the peak of the epidemic will be on 23 May.

According to the German case, the Republic of Tatarstan will have 88,006 infections, the peak is on 26 May.

Experts think that if the pessimistic scenario develops, the COVID-19 mortality toll can total up to 200 people a day. But at the same time, one should consider that Italy and Germany have a different number and density of population. And, most importantly, unlike Tatarstan, they didn’t declare the social distancing regime immediately.

It all turns on people

Head of business solutions at InnoSTage Group of Companies Fyodor Seleznyov commented on the situation for Realnoe Vremya. He says that self-isolation is anyway the key factor to restrain the epidemic.

“The model has also confirmed that the measures taken are considerably reducing the speed of the virus spread in the republic. This means that Tatarstan has a chance of having an optimistic scenario, but this depends precisely on residents themselves if they will continue following the self-isolation regime, restrict contacts. As a result, there can be up to 12,800 infections and even less at the peak of the disease,” Seleznyov told Realnoe Vremya.

He is sure that the conservation of self-distancing will allow smoothing the peak of the disease and load on the health care system. Then doctors can save as many people as possible, and the consequences won’t be as catastrophic as they are in other countries.

By Daria Pinegina