‘The West is having hard times finding new ideas for restrictions’

The stock market has adapted to anti-Russian sanctions, shares of Tatarstan companies are growing

‘The West is having hard times finding new ideas for restrictions’
Photo: realnoevremya.ru

Despite the difficult geopolitical situation, the shares of the largest Tatarstan companies traded on the stock market showed positive dynamics by March and even January 2022. The miracles of adaptation were demonstrated even by the most affected sectors of the Russian economy — banks and carriers, experts say. How the stock price of Tatarstan industrial giants has changed and whether the policy continues to influence their capitalisation — in the review of the analytical service of Realnoe Vremya.

Realnoe Vremya analytical service, based on site data of Investing.com, analysed the value of shares of the largest Tatarstan companies in January, March, and October 2022 and compared these data with current quotes.

In January 2022, an ordinary share of Tatneft PJSC cost 499,7 rubles, in March 2022, it fell by 17,6%, by January — to 411 rubles, and in October 2022 — by another 6% to March — to 387,4 rubles. But already in June 2023, the value of Tatneft's ordinary shares rose to 503,7 rubles, which is slightly higher than the level of January 2022. Tatneft's prefs have risen in price from January 2022 to June 2023 by more than 10% — despite sanctions and restrictions on the supply of Russian oil.

The shares of other Tatarstan companies also showed growth. The growth of ordinary shares of Nizhnekamskneftekhim PJSC by January 2022 amounted to more than 10% — the value of one ordinary share increased from 112,65 in January 2022 to 124,65 rubles in June 2023.

The value of the preferred share of Kazanorgsintez PJSC increased from 89,4 rubles in January 2022 to 123,1 rubles in June 2023, and the ordinary share — from 21,5 rubles to 29,92 rubles.

The shares of KAMAZ PJSC showed good dynamics: the cost of one share almost doubled — from 106,4 to 212,3 rubles. Shares of Nizhnekamskshina rose from 24,14 to 37,88 rubles.

Politics has ceased to influence the assessment of Tatneft

“The market has already adapted to the sanctions, and the West is having a hard time finding new ideas for restrictions. Even the most affected sectors — banks and transportation, especially Aeroflot, demonstrate the wonders of adaptation. Sberbank, the flagship of the industry, even paid dividends," commented Natalia Malykh, the head of the Stock Analysis Department at Finam.

The Moscow Exchange index is now only 34% below the peak values of October 2021, which may be explained by the withdrawal of foreigners from stocks: “This is a very good result, but, in my opinion, the current levels of the Moscow Exchange index are too optimistic for the accumulated and not yet taken into account risks — a possible escalation in Ukraine, the transition of Western economies to near-zero growth rates and a decrease in demand for raw materials, as well as expectations of higher rates on the Russian debt market and an increase in the tax burden due to the budget deficit," warns Malykh.

Tatneft shares are currently trading without the geopolitical discount that was observed for a significant part of last year — the company's multipliers correspond to pre-crisis values, the expert notes.

“In other words, politics has ceased to influence the company's valuation. Locally, the main factor supporting its shares is a significant weakening of the ruble, which compensates for the decline in world oil prices and a reduction in production, the expert believes.

The interlocutor of the publication does not expect further significant weakening of the ruble. From September, the government plans to reduce payments on the damper by half, in which case the company may become one of the most affected among oil workers, emphasises Malykh. Against this background, she does not expect further growth of its shares.

KAMAZ shares grew amid the withdrawal of competitors from Russia

“The stock market, of course, showed a recovery in the first half of this year, despite the sanctions pressure. The Moscow Stock Exchange index has grown by 30%," commented Albert Koroev, the head of the Department of Stock market Experts at BCS World of Investments. “For example, the shares of Tatneft returned to the levels of February 2022, from which the collapse followed.

The expert today looks at the development of the Russian market moderately positively. The Moscow Exchange index, according to his estimates, can continue to rise to 3,480 points.

Shares of KAMAZ, according to Koroev, grew on expectations that against the background of sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign competitors from Russia, domestic car factories could increase production, receive any preferences, financial incentives or government orders from the state, he noted.

The expert also believes that Tatneft shares still have growth potential — about 22% on the horizon of the year from current levels.

Yulia Garayeva, Syumbel Gubaydullina