Anatoly Aksakov: ‘The key point is that inflation will decline, and so will the key interest rate’

Macroeconomic policy and regulation

Mr Aksakov, according to your recent statement, the Bank of Russia forecasts that the key rate will decline to 15–16% by the end of 2025. What specific conditions must be met to reach the lower bound of this range (15%), and how will this affect credit accessibility for small and medium-sized enterprises?

There remains potential for a reduction of the key rate by the end of the year. To achieve the target indicators, it is essential that inflation steadily declines. The recently announced increase in VAT from 20% to 22% will contribute to short-term inflationary pressure but will not create sustained inflation over the long term. For the economy, the key point is that ultimately inflation will decline — and along with it, the key rate. The rate reduction, in turn, will have a positive effect on credit accessibility for small and medium-sized businesses.

You have previously noted that a weaker rouble — around 100 roubles per US dollar — could stimulate competition among domestic goods. What measures, beyond currency regulation, could reduce dependence on imports, in line with the government’s plan to cut its share to 17% of GDP by 2030?

A comprehensive set of measures is being implemented to reduce the share of imports. These include strengthening technological and human resource sovereignty, expanding production capacity, increasing labour productivity, and introducing digital technologies. The focus is on developing competitive Russian production of consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and transport. The main thing is that import substitution should be driven by quality and innovation, not by administrative barriers.

How does the increase in subsidised mortgage financing to 2 trillion roubles align with current monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation? Are additional restrictions planned for the targeted use of such programmes?

The budget continues to subsidise interest rates on previously issued preferential mortgages in accordance with obligations. However, since mid-2024, mass preferential mortgage programmes have been phased out, and new loans are issued only under targeted schemes. This should reduce budget expenditures, stabilise housing prices, and support those who truly need housing. Further adjustments are planned — for instance, rates under the family mortgage scheme will be differentiated depending on the number of children: rates will be lowered for large families and slightly increased for those with one child.

Banking sector and financial market

Given that the Bank of Russia identified around 4,000 illegal organisations in 2025, what legislative initiatives is the committee developing to strengthen liability for creating financial pyramids?

The State Duma has already toughened penalties for involving citizens in financial pyramids and pseudo-investment activities. The committee supports initiatives aimed at tightening control over illegal investment schemes, blocking fraudulent websites and accounts, and enhancing coordination with law enforcement agencies. We will continue to refine legislative measures, as fraudsters constantly seek new ways to deceive citizens.

What incentives are in place to attract private investors and reach the target market capitalisation of 66% of GDP by 2030? What is the planned schedule for state companies to go public?

To develop the stock market, we are expanding long-term investment instruments such as individual investment accounts, the long-term savings programme, and unit-linked life insurance. We also plan to create a “family investment” instrument with an enhanced tax deduction. As for IPOs, we are discussing the possibility of budgetary subsidies to encourage companies to list their shares — a measure that could prove more effective than concessional loans, which may increase inflation.

What regulatory gaps remain in the area of digital financial assets (DFAs), and how will addressing them influence the tokenisation of the economy?

Several gaps remain in DFA regulation — including unequal tax conditions, lack of interoperability between DFA platforms and the stock market, and limited access for non-qualified investors. We expect to harmonise taxation for debt DFAs soon, allowing them to become a popular investment tool for businesses, on par with traditional bonds.

Consumer protection and fraud prevention

What joint programmes with banks and educational institutions do you consider most effective in reducing fraud? Could you cite examples of successful cases?

It is crucial to teach financial literacy from an early age. On my initiative, a “Financial Market Experts” competition for students has been held in Chuvashia for several years. This year we launched a new project — teaching schoolchildren how to prepare presentations using the innovative “Meaning Graphics” method. The competition’s geography will be expanded this year to include both Chuvashia and Crimea. It is important to foster critical thinking among young people and cultivate their interest in finance.

How does the committee coordinate work with telecom operators and banks to block fraudulent transactions in real time? Is a unified transaction verification standard planned?

A state information system called “Anti-Fraud” is being launched to unite the efforts of banks, telecom operators, and government agencies in combating fraud. Banks have been required to improve their anti-fraud policies. In the near future, we plan to discuss the broader introduction of artificial intelligence in the financial sector and public administration.

How does the restriction on obtaining more than one microloan align with the need to preserve access to emergency financing for socially vulnerable groups?

The “one expensive microloan” rule (for loans with a total cost exceeding 100% per annum) will not restrict citizens’ access to microcredit. It is intended to prevent microfinance organisations from burdening borrowers with multiple overlapping loans or rolling over old debts into new ones at higher rates — a practice known as a “loan chain.” Microcredit will continue to develop, but MFOs will have to focus more on protecting borrowers’ interests.

Support for small and medium-sized businesses

What measures are being taken to develop crowdfunding and investment platforms as alternatives to bank lending? Are there plans to reduce regulatory pressure on such platforms?

We have adopted a key law granting small and medium-sized enterprises, including sole proprietors and the self-employed, the right to take six-month credit holidays once every five years. The State Duma is also considering a bill aimed at expanding and improving investment opportunities for crowdfunding platforms — a tool primarily designed to attract financing for SMEs.

How does the DOM.RF infrastructure bond programme integrate with national regional development projects? What guarantees are offered to investors?

The DOM.RF infrastructure bond programme is an important mechanism for attracting long-term financing for regional infrastructure projects, including social and transport sectors. These bonds are secured by guarantees and collateralised monetary claims, have a high credit rating, and are integrated into federal national projects. Guarantees are provided both by DOM.RF and regional governments, reducing risks and increasing attractiveness.

The future of the financial market and emerging challenges

How has the strategy for adapting the banking sector to sanctions changed after the new restrictions introduced in 2024–2025? Which risk-hedging tools have proven most effective?

The strategy for developing Russia’s banking sector focuses on strengthening domestic resources and resilience mechanisms. Measures are being implemented to reinforce capital bases, diversify liquidity sources, and reduce dependence on foreign technologies and payment systems. The Russian financial sector remains among the most advanced in the world, so domestic clients do not experience any sanctions-related impact.

What ethical and regulatory frameworks for the use of AI in lending and scoring are being developed by the committee? How is innovation balanced with the risk of client discrimination?

The Bank of Russia has published a Code of Ethics for the development and application of AI, outlining the principles that organisations should follow. Financial institutions, in particular, must give clients the option to decline interaction with AI and communicate with a human representative. For financial organisations, this is largely a matter of self-regulation. Together with the regulator, we must find a balance between the use of AI and the protection of clients’ rights.

How can long-term savings programmes become a driver of investment in infrastructure projects? Are tax incentives planned for participants in such programmes?

Let us separate two topics. One important aspect of banks’ social responsibility is providing clients access to sustainable development projects — loans for energy-efficient solutions, “green mortgages,” free financial literacy programmes, and support for employees through training and scholarships, as well as improving access to financial services for specific social groups. For example, by purchasing DOM.RF infrastructure bonds, citizens invest in housing and social infrastructure. The Moscow Exchange is developing “people’s bonds,” with nine issuances already completed. These instruments show citizens that money need not be kept on deposits but can be invested in socially beneficial projects — such as replacing diesel buses with electric ones in Moscow, building a waste processing plant in the Tomsk region, or renovating parks and cleaning water bodies in the Kaliningrad region. Bonds are a tool for financing long-term projects and infrastructure facilities.

The long-term savings programme is designed to help citizens save for retirement or long-term goals and includes state co-financing and tax benefits. Since the funds remain within the banking system, they can be directed toward financing projects essential for the national economy.