Industrial production index increases by 17%: Tatarstan ranks fourth in Russia and first in Volga region
However, growth is unlikely to remain at the level of the summer figures by the end of the year
In July 2025, Tatarstan’s industry grew by 17.2%, and since the beginning of the year — by 11.2%. By these indicators, the republic ranks sixth and fourth among Russian regions, respectively. However, by the end of the year, growth is unlikely to remain at the level of the summer figures. “The Ministry of Economy of Tatarstan forecasts that the industrial production index will amount to about 103% compared with last year, which means the figure will be lower than last year’s 105%. The effect of the low base is gradually being exhausted, and the high key rate of the Central Bank restrains new investments and business lending, so in the second half of 2025 the dynamics may slow down,” explained Yaroslav Kabakov, director of Strategy at Finam IC, to Realnoe Vremya. Which sectors are growing and what to expect — read in the material by Realnoe Vremya.
Fluctuations in industrial growth
Tatarstan’s industrial production index in July 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 amounted to 117.2%, and for January–July — 111.2%. Compared with June 2025, industrial production grew by 2.4%. For comparison: industrial production growth in Russia in July amounted to only 0.7%, and since the beginning of the year — 0.8%. In the Volga Federal District, these figures are +4.4% and 2.2%, respectively.
The indicators suggest that industrial growth has accelerated in Tatarstan. In June, the figure was 108%, and for January–June 2025 — 108.5%. However, compared with May, it fell by 6.9%, to 93.1%.
The decline was recorded after growth in May to 116.5%, and for the first five months of 2025 — 108.6%. Compared with April 2025, industrial production then grew by 9.9%.
Why pharmaceutical production soared
In July, the manufacturing sector grew by 30.2%. Among the industries, the highest growth was recorded in the production of medicines and medical materials — +88.7%.
Mining fell by 0.9%, while the energy sector and industries related to water supply and wastewater disposal, waste management, and pollution elimination reduced volumes by 13.3% and 8.8%, respectively. Among the industries, furniture production saw the sharpest decline — down by 28.4%.
Overall, production volumes decreased in 16 industries. Beyond the top five, chemical substances and chemical products (-7.7%) as well as computers, electronic and optical equipment (-6.5%) should be noted.
For the first seven months of 2025 compared with the same period of the previous year, growth in the manufacturing sector amounted to 20.5%. In total, 11 industries showed increases. Closing the top three is metallurgical production (+8.2%), which in July recorded a decline of 16.6%.
An equal number of industries reported decreases. Here, pharmaceutical and medical products — the leader in July’s growth ranking — fell by 5.8%.
In the Volga Federal District, Tatarstan is first, in Russia — fourth
In the overall ranking of regions by industrial production growth for July, Tatarstan placed sixth, according to calculations by Realnoe Vremya based on Rosstat data. By the number of regions represented, the Volga Federal District leads with four. By the average indicator, the Volga Federal District shares first place with the Central Federal District — +4.4%.
The leader is Kamchatka Krai, where production growth is twice as high as in Saratov and Kurgan regions, which follow next.
The steepest industrial declines were recorded in Stavropol Krai (-16.4%), Rostov region (-16.1%) and Murmansk region (-15.1%).
In January–July, Tatarstan rose to fourth place in the national ranking from ninth at the end of the first half of the year. In the Volga Federal District, the republic took first place.
Despite growth, final industrial output figure may fall below last year’s
In the first half of the year, Tatarstan built up a strong “margin of safety” in terms of industrial production growth rates, which allows for a high likelihood of surpassing the target set in the republic’s 2025–2027 socio-economic development forecast of 103.1%, stated Olga Karpulevich.
“Nevertheless, despite the clearly positive dynamics of industrial production in recent months, annual growth rates may prove more restrained under conditions of macroeconomic instability, a high key rate, and declining consumer demand. The high growth rates of industrial production at the beginning of the year are partly explained by the low base of early 2024 (the index for January–June last year was 102.8%). An important role in the positive dynamics has been and will continue to be played by the high industrial diversification of the republic’s economy, thanks to which the decline in extraction is to some extent balanced by the growth of manufacturing, as well as by a developed defence industry and a large volume of government orders,” she commented.
Yaroslav Kabakov shares the same view:
“Industrial production growth in Tatarstan in July 2025 is explained by a whole range of factors. The effect of last year’s low base is evident, when industrial dynamics were weaker, which makes the current rates look especially high. A key driver has been the manufacturing sector, which shows steady growth, particularly in metallurgy, chemicals, the automotive industry, rubber and plastics, and furniture production. Additional momentum comes from investment projects and the launch of new capacities, including in petrochemicals and mechanical engineering, as well as the development of the Alabuga special economic zone. Digitalisation and robotisation of production also play a significant role, enabling efficiency gains amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
However, by the end of the year, growth is unlikely to remain at the level of the summer figures.”
“The Ministry of Economy of Tatarstan forecasts that the industrial production index will amount to about 103% compared with last year, which means the figure will be lower than last year’s 105%. The effect of the low base is gradually being exhausted, and the high key rate of the Central Bank restrains new investments and business lending, so in the second half of 2025 the dynamics may slow down,” he concluded.