Rental of warehouse real estate in Tatarstan may double in price by 2026
Investors took a break with the introduction of new facilities, and in conditions of shortage of space rates rushed up
“There is demand, the rates are rising, but for some reason investors are in no hurry to build new warehouse complexes in Tatarstan," Elena Stryukova, the authorised representative of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers (RGUD) in Tatarstan, managing partner of Perfect RED, assessed the situation on the warehouse and industrial real estate market. Opening the conference “Logistics of the future in Kazan”, the expert warned: the longer the pause with the introduction of new facilities, the higher the rental cost will be. According to her forecast, the growth of rates will continue at a rate of 10-15% and will exceed the bar of 1,100 rubles per square metre by 2026. Representatives of the industry agree with her, since there is still an acute shortage of available storage facilities in the regions.
There are no empty spaces
The launch of new warehouse complexes in Tatarstan has slowed down. The iconic objects of 2022 in this segment were warehouse facilities in Alabuga SEZ (over 37 thousand square metres) and the KazanExpress logistics centre in Kazan (30 thousand square metres). Other private investors took a break.
As a result, the vacancy rate in the republic fell to an extremely minimum of 0,7%, and the rate requested by developers rose to 647 rubles per square metre, or 7,7 thousand rubles per 1 square metre a year (the weighted average rate in the regions is 5,5 thousand rubles per 1 square metres a year — ed.). This is how Elena Stryukova, the plenipotentiary representative of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers in Tatarstan, managing partner of Perfect RED, outlined the situation on the warehouse real estate market, speaking at the thematic conference “Logistics of the Future in Kazan”.
“Back in 2009, I had to make a lot of cold calls in search of tenants to the warehouse facilities of the republic," she recalled. “From Kazan to Moscow — half a day. Why do we need your warehouses," the players explained then.
Five of the nine warehouses are in Zelenodolsk: how M12 highway will change their location
Since then, the logistical situation has changed exactly the opposite. Due to the shortage of high-quality warehouse real estate, federal retailers and marketplaces themselves are forced to build distribution centres in the republic, concentrating in the Zelenodolsk district: “Five of the nine warehouse complexes are located there," Elena Stryukova noted.
Tander JSC was the first to rebuild in 2013, launching a complex of 25 thousand square metres. The baton in 2020 was picked up by Ozon and Wildberries — together they introduced 80 thousand square metres. Today, retailers and marketplaces account for over 360 thousand square metres of space. Offers for 433,5 thousand square metres have been formed on the open market (these are warehouses in Kazan, Vysokogorsky, Laishevsky districts). As a result, the vacancy rate has dropped to a minimum — there are no free places to be found.
According to the representative of the RGUD, two years ago Alibaba Group started looking for an area of 10 thousand square metres, but did not find it. The last “remnants” of vacant space ended last year. The launch of the second stage of the Tura 2.0 complex in Zelenodolsk district is ahead, but lots there are reserved by Nefis, KAMAZ and other manufacturers. According to Elena Stryukova, interest in Zelenodolsk may decrease after the launch of the M12 highway, which will reverse the deployment of warehouse complexes.
Rental rates will increase by almost 2 times
Further, the speaker presented a forecast that rental rates will continue to grow at an annual rate of 10-15%. By 2026, the rental price may almost double. The greatest growth will occur in Class A. According to the guild's envoy, currently the rental rate averages 627 rubles per square emtre per month and will approach 1,091 rubles per square metre. The growth dynamics will be slightly weaker in class B. Here the rates will increase from 440 rubles per square metre to 526 rubles per square metre in 2023 and will rise to 700 rubles per square metre by 2026.
Private investors are deterred by uncertainty. According to Elena Stryukova, the effective construction budget is estimated at 55,600 rubles per square metre: “But only system developers can boast of such a price, and even then if they have their own plot. Of course, you can't just build it for such money," she noted.
Konstantin Fomichenko, Partner and Regional Director of the Department of Industrial and Warehouse Real Estate of NF Group, noted that in the regions of Russia as a whole, there was no positive growth dynamics of new facilities last year:
“The volume of completed construction in the regions for the same period decreased by 38%," he noted.
In 2022, 45% of the introduced high-quality warehouse space in the constituent entities of Russia fell on built-to-suit projects: this value is at a level comparable to 2021. Among the largest BTS projects, there are several facilities for Ozon: PNK Park Chapaevsk in Samara (135 thousand square meters), as well as two new buildings in Dorozhny LP(Rostov—on-Don) and Koltsovsky (Yekaterinburg) with an area of 42 thousand square metres and 39 thousand square metres, respectively. Among other completed BTS projects, it is worth highlighting the second phase of the Wildberries distribution centre in Krasnodar with an area of 50 thousand square metres (the total area of the facility reached 100 thousand square meters), X5 Group distribution centre in Bryansk (35 thousand square metres), and KazanExpress logistics centre in Kazan (30 thousand square metres). Meanwhile, interest in the capitals remains.
“In Moscow, the volume of supply increased by 19% compared to the value of the end of 2021, while in St. Petersburg the indicator increased by more than 3,5 times," said Fomichenko.
The total volume of warehouse space in Russia by the end of 2022 amounted to 42,2 million square metres. More than half of them (55%, or 23,2 million square metres) falls on the Moscow region, 11% (4,6 million square metres) — on St. Petersburg and Leningrad region, and about 34% (14,4 million square metres) — on the rest of the country.