Gumer Isaev: ‘Now Erdoğan will demonstratively agree with Putin to spite the West’

In your opinion, what does the return to negotiations on Turkish Stream mean?

Actually the topic of Turkish Stream is important for Russia because we are speaking about alternative options of gas supply to Europe. The idea to build Turkish Stream appeared when it became clear there would not be South Stream. Many experts were sceptical about this option. Let me remind you it was important to find a way to bypass Ukraine at that time. This is why the Russian mass media told much about alternatives to Ukraine and even Europe like Power of Siberia, Nord Stream 2, etc.

After the failure of SouthStream, Turkish Stream was an interesting option for Russia. The actively developing economy of Turkey needs its gas, and its need for gas will be growing. There is Blue Stream that delivers gas from Russia to Turkey. What is more, there is Trans-Balkan pipeline that Turkey also uses to get gas.

But the main and strategic question is how reliable Turkey would be in order to just lay, for example, four lines going towards Greece to Europe. In fact, this question was asked many times in the context of the ill-fated Turkey-Russia crisis with the downed jet.

As far as I'm concerned, excluding the variant that it is on paper only, today there are at least two scenarios on Turkish Stream. The first option is that there will be laid one line whose capacity will be enough to satisfy the growing Turkish needs for gas. But a project 'maximum' with a great number of pipes towards EU is likely to be discussed. Undoubtedly, it is an interesting question whether it is fulfilled.

'The topic of Turkish Stream is important for Russia because we are speaking about alternative options of gas supply to Europe.' Photo: finobzor.ru

Speaking about the Russia-Turkey crisis and its influence on Turkey in terms of energy, it affected the Turkish strategy, of course. Nevertheless, a question 'What will happen if we are in conflict with Russia? Is Russia able to limit gas supplies?' was discussed by experts. For this reason, the Turkish side was actively seeking for alternative options literally from December 2015 like to increase supplies via other pipes, for instance, through Azerbaijan that has a prospective Tanap pipeline under construction. Gas can be delivered from Iran. Iran's President assured Turkey he will provide its energy safety. There is also liquefied gas from Qatar. Gas supply from Israeli Leviathan is also considered. The arrival of the first tanker with liquefied gas from the USA is another interesting moment that just a handful of people paid attention to. Indubitably, it is like a drop in the ocean. But taking account other options, this indicates that Turkey can reduce its dependence on Russian gas. It won't be able to refuse it, of course, especially in the short run. But it is real to reduce the dependence. Turkey is important for Russia as a blue fuel purchaser because it is the second European partner after Germany in terms of the volume of gas it buys. This is why I think energy issues are playing a major role in the rapid Russia-Turkey normalisation.

Are EU's fears reasonable?

I think the European Union can balance any threats to its energy safety and follow the rules it chose. Turkish Stream is unlikely to be a big problem for EU. Moreover, we are speaking about plans for the construction only. No one is speaking about specific volumes of gas. And we are not able to know for sure whether this pipe is going to go forward to Europe. Many experts wrote that transit of Russia gas is beneficial for Turkey because it might become a hub. As I mentioned it above, the Europeans are interested in the weakening the dependence of Russian gas. They can come to an agreement with Turkey and bypass Russia.

Anyway, we should wait for the results of the meeting of the first persons of Russia and Turkey who will give the green light and keep up to date with the terms of the fulfilment of the project. It is not excluded only a part of the project will be fulfilled. Figuratively speaking, it is a Turkey-Russian project, a line to Turkey. As for the continuance of the pipeline and transformation of Turkey to a transit country of Russian gas, this question is open because in Russia Erdoğan is not considered as a reliable partner because of what happened at the end of November 2015.

'The Turkish side was actively seeking for alternative options literally from December 2015 like to increase supplies via other pipes, for instance, through Azerbaijan that has a prospective Tanap pipeline under construction.' Photo: trend.az

Can we say the relations with Turkey have normalised and the conflict has been resolved?

Now we are witnessing a peace–making process of the two countries. On the one hand, Turkey understood the conflict has been resolved. The downed Su-24 rose Erdoğan's rating in November 2015. Now he could break the truce without any fear in front of the electorate. What is more, Russia's requirements can't be called unrealistic for the Turkish side – to apologise and compensate. Taking into account how quickly Russia reacted, I think Russia was also very interested in mending fences with its southern neighbour.

I suppose there are several clauses in the bilateral normalisation, and some of the are unclear. And Syria is the main. Tempers are running high in Syria right now. It is no secret long-suffering Syria has been the centre of the global tension in recent years – refugees, growth of terrorist attacks, worsened relations between countries, implication of many exterior participants in the armed conflict.

A decisive fight has burst out in Aleppo now, which is the second largest city in Syria. It seemed Turkey agreed to revise its Syrian strategy and stretch a point. A Russian aircraft was shot down by fighters a couple of days ago. And now Turkish representatives started to state that Russia is to stop breaking off the offensive in Aleppo. In other words, anyway, in the Syrian crisis, Russia and Turkey have different positions.

Undoubtedly, all these statements of Turkish official representatives on Syria can be just a part of a diplomatic game. Judging from what I read, many experts expected that not only Turkish Stream or some incentives for Russian business are the price Turkey is going to pay in order to normalise the relations with Russia but also a change of Turkey's position on Syria. There were indirect signs that Turkey can stop supporting certain groups of militants of the Syrian opposition that is fighting against Al-Assad.

If we are speaking about the economy, it always has demonstrated good indicators, while politics has always been a complicated matter. Positions were different – in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, in Cyprus, Crimea… But Syria became the main reason for the quarrel between Turkey and Russia.

Optimists in Russia opine that now after the problems with militants, the USA and EU, the Turkish side can make an important decision on Syria, its policy in this area will change and, indeed, it will coordinate its actions with Russia. But the fact that Russia doesn't allow charter flights, it is in no haste to lift food import ban proves that Moscow wants real evidence. We will wait for the results of the meeting of the presidents. It will show who trusts whom.

'Anyway, in the Syrian crisis Russia and Turkey have different positions.' Photo: ru.tsn.ua

How will the situation of Turkish Stream affect the relationships of Turkey and the European Union?

Turkish Stream is just a project at the moment, and the European Union has difficult relations with Turkey. I think both sides have more hot-button issues than unbuilt Turkish Stream. I mean the refugees. Today the Turkish public opinion considers both the USA and EU as enemies. At least the declamation of the Turkish mass media is that the West, in general, supports putschists (it is unknown how this support is expressed). I guess now Erdoğan will allow himself loud statements to spite the West like he likes to do. He will demonstratively agree with Putin about ambitious common projects, threaten with worsening relations and withdrawal from western organisations and so on. But here Russia should not delude itself because Turkey economically depends on Europe very much, in spite of its anti-western position. This is why I would not say the relations between Turkey and Europe can be frozen or radically worsened.

How will Turkish Stream influence the relationships of Russia and the European Union?

It is difficult to say. I think Europe wants to reduce its energy dependence on Russia. For this reason, they are looking askance at this pipe. As I mentioned above, I don't think Turkish Stream will bother Europe – EU has many other domestics problems now. I suppose Russia will find and has found partners inside Europe who could be its lobbyists in a certain sense and support it. But, again, we count our chickens before they are hatched on Turkish Stream. One year ago it was in the bag, but the Russian public opinion still remembers the aflame jet in the Syrian sky.

For Russia, the energy issue is important in Europe. Moreover, there are unreliable transit countries and falling prices for energy resources. If earlier ambitious projects could easily pay for themselves, now it is unclear whether it should be done if we look at gas and oil prices.

Nowadays Russia is optimistic about the tension between Turkey and the West. Somebody considers Turkey as a kind of 'partner in the fight against the West'. But in terms of energy projects, Russia needs a reliable partner. Would not Turkey be the second version of Ukraine? Money will be invested in the project, a pipe will be laid, but no one knows what will happen then. The state of affairs in Turkey has radically changed in recent three-four years. For instance, coups are not staged without any reason – it is a reflection of a difficult situation in domestic and social processes. This is why I urge not to delude but be sensible. However, I'm sure Russian energy companies are analysing everything well and know how to act.

I think Gazprom has a multivector course, and Turkey is one of the many areas but not the strategic one. If the laying a new pipe to Turkey will favour better relationships between peoples of Russia and Turkey in the end, I'm glad about it.

'Turkey and Ukraine will have good relationships with benefits for both countries, and it won't be an obstacle to Russia-Turkey relations.' Photo: mpsh.ru

Will it have an impact of the relationships with Ukraine?

I don't think it will have a serious impact on the relationships with Ukraine. The mass media paid much attention to the development of Turkey-Russia relations that took place during the crisis with Russia. In my opinion, it is an exaggeration. I think it is rubbish that Erdoğan met with Poroshenko, and they are going to create an anti-Russia treaty. From my point of view, Turkey and Ukraine will have good relationships with benefits for both countries, and it won't be an obstacle to Russia-Turkey relations. As for gas issues, I don't suppose Ukraine will be able to affect the construction of Turkish Stream or impede it.

Purges were carried out at Turkish universities. Could you tell us how it happened and speak about the consequences of the purges?

I had been teaching at the St. Petersburg State University during 12 years. I don't accept any repressions of teachers. I would call what is happening in Turkey a 'cultural revolution'. It is like the processes that happened in China in the 1960s when a great number of representatives of the intelligentsia were purged. It is a reflection of the political fight at the highest level. When we hear about mass dismissals or even arrests in the academic environment, we mean not only the so-called Gülen's followers who are supposed to be one in two teachers now. Professors and docents who are far from Gülen or Islam were considered untrustworthy. I talked to people from different universities, and they told terrible stories about arrests of a head of a department or a professor. Why? People are simply afraid to call those who were dismissed because they fear somebody will come for them.

The Turkish people are against the coup, of course. The majority of them doesn't approve such a change of power. But today we are witnessing a big purge in education on the sly as well as in other spheres. I think we will know about its consequences soon. It is a fall in the level of education, first of all. Turkey is not the country where Gum can dismiss 20,000 teachers without thinking about consequences.

I hope the wave of fury will calm down in the short run, and innocent people will be able to teach and give knowledge. I don't believe all these hundreds and thousands of deans, professors and docents, who were divested of their posts, dismissed or arrested, could incite violence or coup. What is happening in Turkey is, first of all, is a try to fight against dissent. But dissent should not be persecuted in the modern world. As a result, it will hurt the very persecutors. We are living in another world, I want to believe in it. And the bloody 20 ^th century left behind.