Tatarstan's Rospotrebnadzor predicts when pandemic comes to end

Tatarstan's Rospotrebnadzor predicts when pandemic comes to end
Photo: Ilya Repin

Tatarstan is far from the required percentage of collective immunity

Collective immunity to coronavirus in Tatarstan should be at least 70% among the entire population — so that the incidence does not have an “explosive” character. For the infection to disappear, the immune system must be about 90%. Deputy Head of the Republican Department of Rospotrebnadzor Lyubov Avdonina said that 70% of immunity can be achieved through either acquired immunity after the disease or after vaccination — this is the so-called artificial immunity.

“If 70% of the total population will be, then, accordingly, we can expect a decrease in the incidence by analogy with influenza. That is, we still vaccinate 60% of the population against the flu, and this suggests that in the case of flu, we register isolated cases among unvaccinated individuals. Therefore, we are waiting for vaccination against coronavirus, and, accordingly, with good coverage, we can expect that the infection will already be managed," said Lyubov Avdonina, the deputy head of the Rospotrebnadzor department.

However, even the figure of 70% is far from Tatarstan. According to the results of June studies, immunity was found in 31,3% of test participants, and in september — 45,2%. At the moment, the third stage of the study is underway, which will be completed in December — the results will be transferred to the research institute.

A total of 2,947 people are tested for immunity. Among schoolchildren, antibodies were found in 51% of the surveyed. They are also present in 52% of the test teachers, 50% of medical professionals and 47% of students.

According to the results of June studies, immunity was found in 31,3% of test participants, and in september — 45,2%. At the moment, the third stage of the study is underway. Photo: Ilya Repin

“We have a smooth flow of the epidemiological process”

Avdonina also estimated the probability of a sharp increase in the incidence of coronavirus after the New Year's events:

“Today the situation is such that in principle we have is that the smooth flow of the epidemiological process. If we look at December — it's 90, 93, 89, 95 today (cases of coronavirus — editor's note). Therefore, there is no such explosive nature, and these figures are likely to last until the end of December, while observing all the preventive measures that we have in place in the republic today. This allows us to avoid introducing more stringent restrictions, and we are trying to avoid this and switch to planned control, so that our residents and facilities still comply with preventive measures. Therefore, it is very difficult to make forecasts here, but I repeat that if we stick to everything, we will still remain on these figures. And most likely, at the beginning of the year, if all mass events are held in compliance with all the necessary requirements, we will still not see any deterioration in the incidence during the New Year holidays.”

She also advised to get vaccinated against the flu, as it will come in any case.

Avdonina advised to get vaccinated against the flu without fail, as it will come in any case. Photo: nnews.nnov.ru

Answering the question about whether the tourist flow to Tatarstan for the New Year holidays will provoke a surge in the incidence of diseases, the deputy head of Rospotrebnadzor for the Republic of Tatarstan noted that it (the flow) has not stopped. Guests came both in summer and autumn — and there was no deterioration of the epidsituation.

“Therefore, we do not think that there will be a change in the situation for the worse, such a sharp one. Yes, it is clear that people come, still get sick to some extent, not necessarily with a coronavirus, because still, viral respiratory infections are registered much more often today... We hope that people will also treat with understanding — both to the remark that you need to put on a mask and to the offer to measure the temperature, and to the offer to keep clean and not visit mass places... For today, everything is going in a normal mode, and I think that everything will continue in this mode," Avdonina said.

By Daria Pinegina
Tatarstan