Aleksey Malashenko: ‘In Kazakhstan there was only one maidan, during the Soviet era…’

'The latest news strongly smell some kind of provocation'

The political situation in Kazakhstan, in general, is normal. When they talk about a coup, it is an obvious exaggeration, because in Kazakhstan, at least in the near future, there might be a kind of destabilization but not a coup. First, there are no forces that would really want to implement it, and, secondly, I see no interest from any political factions, really operating ones, in order this would happen, because it will not lead to any good ultimately – everyone perfectly understands this.

The latest news strongly smell some kind of provocation. There was a person who tried to stage a coup – it was Rahat Aliyev, Nazarbayev's former son-in-law, the husband of his adopted daughter, but as you know, about two years ago he was found in an Austrian prison dead. In the shower – something that kind. He was the only man who tried to do something in recent times, but still, even he, having authority, having money, did nothing, and finished it very poorly. Before him there was Akezhan Kazhegeldin – the former Prime Minister, was a very interesting man, he wrote a lot, gave speeches, but he emigrated and withdrew from politics a long time ago: he is engaged in business now.

The authority is interested in demonstrating that such threat exists. After those events, which took place, in May… By the way, there was an unrest in Atyrau: there was the rally, which, according to various estimates, was attended by from 700 to 4,5 thousand people. Besides, there were attempts to organize something in several cities – including Astana, Almaty, Aktobe, Pavlodar, but the authorities prevented it.

'The government reacted rather tough – except one episode in Atyrau, there were no demonstrations. However, it was detained several tens of people, there were talks about that it went from the outside, but where outside?' Photo: rferl.org

Then it was about a fairly specific circumstance: the thing is that it is impossible to exclude the adoption of certain amendments to the land legislation of Kazakhstan, which annoy a certain part of the population. The amendments change the order of the lease and the sale of land. In my opinion, the rent will be increased from 10 to 25 years, we are talking about agricultural lands. This caused irritation, especially it was accompanied by talks of the sale of this land to China. Among Kazakhtan citizens, Kazakhs I would even say, it's not very admirable, and it had to cause some reaction, the attempts to oppose these changes. And the government reacted rather tough – except one episode in Atyrau, there were no demonstrations. However, several tens of people were detained, there were talks about that it went from the outside, but where outside? It is a typical post-Soviet thought: if something happens, then it all comes naturally not from within, not because of internal policy, but due to some dark forces from abroad. We don't know about these forces yet, but it is an option.

After Nazarbayev's speech in which he called for vigilance and so forth, there was a feeling that the power would control the situation better, more reliably, and what has just happened in the night from Sunday to Monday just proves that this situation is very difficult, and that there are some forces that can produce these actions. But the thing is that earlier something similar also took place – in 2011, in 2012, in Aktobe, Atyrau and in Taraz. In Atyrau in September of 2012, if I am not mistaken, there was also an attack on a gun shop, and simultaneously there was an attack on the building of the city police. Apparently, those that attacked wanted to get as many weapons as possible.

If to talk about Aktobe, where there was declared the 'red' level of terrorist threat, it's a city like any, but I will also note that it is the western part, where there are oil and gas. A lot of Russians were there before – they were the majority, but now they have become a minority. The trend is so noticeable throughout Kazakhstan: the so-called 'kazakhization' is taking place, that is perfectly normal. People come to Aktobe from small towns, from rural areas that, in general, also creates some of the preconditions for radical sentiments. It's like everywhere else, this is not surprising.

'What we see in Aktobe now – it's not an occasion but a trend'

Let's get back to the attacks on gun shops: in 2012, as well as in 2016, they largely contact with the adherents of 'the religion of non-traditional orientation' – in general, we are talking about the radicalised Islamists. And this raises a key question: are there radicalised Islamists there? Of course, there are. This does not mean that tomorrow there will be a green revolution or any Islamic coup, it's a nonsense, but that such groupings are scattered all over the country – it is true. How strong they are interconnected, how they coordinate their actions — there are different views, including among Kazakhstani specialists who say that there is no a network, it is all episodes, but the episodes are already beginning to repeat.

'I think what we see in Aktobe now – it's still not an occasion but a trend. Albeit not so pronounced, as, for example, in Tajikistan, but, nevertheless, it exists.' Photo: ap.org

What's also interesting: when they used to say about radical Islam in relation to Kazakhstan, it was usually mentioned the southern and eastern regions. The southern – it is Jambul, and the eastern is associated with the Uyghurs. As we know that the vast majority of the Uyghurs live in the neighboring Xinjiang, they also have their own problems, to which the Chinese are cautious and are trying to crush this radical Islam in some way there. There, someone was arrested occasionally, was given the Chinese and the Chinese gave someone to us. They got used to it, it was a routine, even with the 'minus' sign.

What is happening since the 2010th in the west of Kazakhstan (where there are gas and oil) – in general, it was quite unexpectedly at first. Then it seemed that it was some sort of negative incident, which can easily be forgotten then. But no, they could not forget. Obviously, there are not just some groups – one, two, three, that are ready for such actions, but there is some category of the population that, to put it mildly, treat such activities with understanding. It is not some marginals — it is a form of manifestation of opposition sentiment.

I think what we see in Aktobe now – it's still not an occasion but a trend. Albeit not so pronounced, as, for example, in Tajikistan, but, nevertheless, it exists. Besides, when the events took place in 2012, then it was clearly known that there 'worked' not only the Kazakhs, it was an international cell involving Russian neophytes. It was a characteristic of the radical Islamists, in general, including in the former Soviet Union space. If we look at Russia, there are different radical Islamist groups, for example in the Volga region, the Urals, in Siberia there are such groups, where there are immigrants from Central Asia – Uzbeks, Tajiks, and there are ours, there are Caucasians.

'Sleeper cells' are waking up?

There is a very good expression that appeared probably a few years ago and is popular among the specialists – it is so-called 'sleeper cells' — the Islamist groups who behave very reserved, very modest, passively. They do propaganda, very carefully distribute literature, try to influence in the mosques, and nevertheless, they are passive, but they can wake up.

'Between the Islamists in the post-Soviet space, including Russia, and those guys, who act there, of course, there is some connection. No wonder there is a movement from the former Soviet Union there, to the Middle East, in order to support local Islamists.' Photo: vk.com/aktobe_people

What has happened in Aktobe, I think it was an awakening. By the way, it occurs not only in Kazakhstan, it generally occurs in the post-Soviet space – we know from the Tajiks, the Kyrgyz, and from the native mother Russia. Of course, it will be distinguished, whether there is a link with the Middle East, with 'Islamic state' (ISIS, banned in Russia), but as for this episode — there is nothing to tell – it is necessary to prove.

But, in fact, between the radical Islamists in the post-Soviet space, including Russia, and those guys, who act there, of course, there is some connection. No wonder there is a movement from the former Soviet Union there, to the Middle East, in order to support local radical Islamists – this is Daesh (ISIS), Caliphate, and in fairly considerable amounts. For example, in Russia, the data fluctuates around 5 thousand people, but it is also a number at 7 thousand. Shoigu said 1,5-2 months earlier that in the result of Russian bombings there have been destroyed up to 2 thousand immigrants from Russia, it is a solid number, and it is said by our Ministry of Defence. As for Central Asia, there are totally different figures, a very strong inconsistency, but most often they call the number at 4 thousand throughout the teritory. But also there is another figure according to which only 4 thousand is from Uzbekistan. As for Kazakhstan: 300, as well 300 thousand… there are no accurate figures, but in any case, people are going there. I have forgotten the exact surname of a very large family, which supposedly went there – almost an entire company.

So there are such connections, despite the fact that in recent months the security services have managed to reduce movement, especially in Kazakhstan. However, contacts remain: purely religious, as well as ideological, organizational. Let me explain about the last contacts: when people are going there to fight, one way or another some structures need to be there that would allow us to go there, and those who accept them. And they go in different directions: very often, through Russia, then through Turkey, then sometimes through Turkmenistan. I would not treat the latter circumstance, during which there were many casualties, as a simple episode. We have to think what will happen next.

Pro-Russian lobby in Kazakhstan and the attempts to end 'oil needle' reliance

I would not link directly what is happening now in Kazakhstan with the absence of a strong successor to Nazarbayev. He is powerful enough and I don't see any politician who would at least indirectly would support that same public. Besides, I have not heard that 'sleeper cells' and all other comrades who criticize, called prominent names. You can compare Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, because Nazarbayev and Karimov – of almost the same age, and sooner or later there will be a transit, but how it will happen – it is a completely other matter. Maybe, everything will be calm enough and well, however, it is worth remembering that any transit authority in an authoritarian regime is always accompanied by some intrigues.

'There are a few candidates, but while Nursultan Nazarbayev is alive, even if there is his successor (he will appoint himslef), he will remain a national leader, far more important than the formal president.' Photo: newskaz.kz

While everyone is awating, because periodically there are all kinds of rumors about various people. I can name a few names, but I don't want to do that, because there is a certain provocation in it. They begin to intend in successors, and then it turns out that it was nothing more than speculation. There are a few candidates, but while Nursultan Nazarbayev is alive, even if there is his successor (he himself will appoint), he will remain a national leader, far more important than the formal president.

Also I would like to note that in Kazakhstan there are no influence groups – there are the names. Around each of them there are people who provide support. By the way, it was very common to speak in one period, that there were the Seniour Zhuz, the Junior Zhuz (Zhuz is a historically established association of the Kazakhs. In total there were three zhuzes formed: the Senior Zhuz, the Middle Zhuz, and the Junior Zhuz — editor's note), supposedly there is a struggle between them… Yes, there is a factor of the zhuzes, but it will not be decisive. I think that, first, the President will determine, and secondly, the personalities.

If we talk about party life, then it does not exist there. There is the party Nur Otan, which is in parliament, and that's it. It is a purely formal, that is a kind of reminiscent of the Soviet Union. Of course, there is a pro-Russian party there. In general, Russia is distinguished by a surprising incompetence in the policy on post-Soviet space: it is not thinking about the future. The fact that Russia has never created a pronounced Pro-Russian lobby from the younger generation. And it will be a huge problem. In the same Kazakhstan there is such young growth, who speaks Russian and English the same, also it is heavily influenced by China. In general, Russia has to compete there.

The economic situation in Kazakhstan is very difficult: everyone is living with the thought 'what will happen next?'. They want to get off the 'oil needle', Nazarbayev himself has offered a powerful project about how they are going to do it, but it will take time. They need technology, they need investments, which are mostly now coming from China. Russia is now a poor country, it cannot give technology now. And, by the way, the Kazakhstan volume of trade with the countries of the Eurasian Union has declined by approximately 28%. This was happening last year as well and in the first quarter of 2016.

'If we talk about party life, then it does not exist there. There is the party Nur Otan, which is in parliament, and that's it. It is a purely formal, that is a kind of reminiscent of the Soviet Union. Of course, there is a pro-Russian party there.' Photo: khabar.kz

'They will do everything in order there will be no demonstrations'

Is it possible the Ukrainian scenario in Kazakhstan? Assuming the geopolitical idiocy, then everything is possible, but if we proceed from common sense, no. I didn't see any maidan here. Generally, in Kazakhstan there was only one maidan during the Soviet era, where first Secretary was changing. But it was on the crest of perestroika, when Kunaev left, the Russian was sent there. Now I don't see there the organized forces, and I don't see leaders who would be able to do something like that.

As for the thoughts expressed earlier, according to which Kazakhstan will not fully support Russia… And by the way, they are very skeptical about Russian policy in Ukraine. Also, Kazakstan did not recognize the independence of Abkhazia or South Ossetia, they have not officially recognized that Crimea is a part of Russia. Moreover, Nazarbayev wanted to be a mediator in order to settle this somehow.

Whether Russia intervenes in case of serious problems in Kazakhstan — all depends on the shape of the riots, on who will participate in them, where it will happen. A coup can ever be state, that's it. This is done very quickly, and then all the partners of Kazakhstan will face the fact. But I would not think that Russia will influence the transit. Their problems they will solve by themselves, and I think they will do everything in order there will be no demonstrations.