‘In the long term, the ruble is bounded to fall, and it doesn’t cause doubts, but…’

On 2 June, news about a sudden fall of the ruble forecasted by Alfa-bank went round the mass media. Senior analyst of the bank Alan Kaziev warned people to buy the American currency if the dollar goes beyond 67 rubles, and the dollar exchange rate might exceed 74 rubles. 'As for the character of the movement, it will be explosive,' the expert noted. The words of the analyst were perceived as the most pessimistic forecast. However, later Alan Kaziev explained that his words were not interpreted accurately. Nevertheless, Realnoe Vremya asked other experts to either comment the news or make their own forecast.

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  ​Maksim Osadchy head of Analytical Administration of Corporate Finance Bank

  In the long term, the ruble is bound to fall, it doesn't cause doubts, but we speak about a long term. The ruble depends on oil. Consequently, if oil grows, the ruble is revalued.

  Although the ruble is bound to suffer from devaluation in the end, we have seen periods of quite a long constancy many times. Nevertheless, episodes of a slump in devaluation at the end of 2008 – beginning of 2009, in December 2014, destroyed this constancy. This doom is connected with the weakness of the Russian economy.

  What is more, technological progress in oil extraction, extraction of shale oil, first of all, favours the fall in the ruble. On the other hand, we are witnessing a 'victory march' of electric cars. It is quite possible that they will drive out internal combustion engines in some years, so that demand for oil can significantly reduce. And when internal combustion engines remain in the past, oil won't cost a penny, it will be in a small demand.

  Undoubtedly, the ruble is strengthening, compared to the beginning of the year. The lowest ruble rate was on 27 January – at 81,8 rubles per dollar. Then we saw its strengthening linked with a growth in oil price.

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  Aleksey Yegorov senior analyst in Promsvyazbank PJSC

  At present there is no reason for the demonstration of a slump or rise in ruble rate. At this moment all conditions on exterior platforms are comfortable for the ruble in principle. Even despite a correction in the market, generally speaking, oil rates at over 47-48 dollars per barrel are comfortable. And it should be noted that today oil price in rubles, which is an important factor for the revenue, is more than 3,100 rubles for Urals brand. This occurrence is fine for the budget of the Russian Federation, which is maybe partially compensating the failure in the first quarter. In addition, I would not say that nowadays there are risks in terms of the geopolitics; we can see even certain measures taken. It cannot be called a full-fledged improvement, but it is a step, a vector directed at improvement of the geopolitical situation. Moreover, I would not talk about the reasons for a sudden change of the situation that would affect the investors' decision, in spite of the risks connected with the decision of the Federal Reserve System, decision of Bank of Russia, a possible decision of OPEC.

  Observing the movement of the ruble, which has formed since the middle of April, chances are the ruble is in a narrow range now: the lowest bar is 64,70 and the highest – 67. Sometimes we cross the limits. But, in general, the ruble always returns to this range. And we will probably continue to remain in this range.

  Speaking about the reason for the slump in the ruble now, the change in the attitude of the global investors to developing markets and assets in the form of raw materials is to become the key driver. It is possible if the Federal Reserve System toughens its declamations. But this scenario is unlikely to be implemented.

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  Bogdan Zvarich analyst in FINAM

  Actually we are waiting for a serious fall in oil prices. The thing is that temporary factors are supporting the energy market: a fire in Canada, problems in Libya and Nigeria, strikes in France. Of course, it all supported oil price. When these factors disappear, the main basic factor – oil glut – will be at the forefront. Taking into account that it will be supported by a part of countries is augmenting oil extraction, it will give an impetus to the energy market to a fall, which will lead to the change of the course of the market and start of a negative dynamics in oil prices. As a consequence, it will have an impact on the Russian currency and result in its weakening in comparison with world currencies.

  In principle, nothing was expected from the OPEC summit. Now they are not ready to take measures to support the energy market. For instance, no freeze has been named, not to mention the decrease in extraction to stabilise the market in the long term.

  It should not be forgotten that now all people are expecting the monetary policy in the USA to be tightened. It will support the dollar, lead to the sales of high-risk assets, and oil and ruble, in particular, refer to them. It all indicated to a possible serious growth of the dollar and euro against the Russian currency.

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  Andrey Kochetkov analyst in Otkrytiye Broker

  Nowadays there are several risks of weakening ruble, but it's difficult to call this weakening a slump. Firstly, it is a probably correction of oil prices. Black gold actively became expensive from $27,1 per Brent barrel in the last months to recent peak figures at $50,5. Consequently, stock speculators can start a game aimed at a fall after such a rapid rise. And, by the way, the growth in the last weeks was mainly connected with force majeure that have a limited influence in terms of time. And a slump of oil price to $44-$45 will bring the ruble rate to 70-72 rubles per dollar. A tentative outflow of capital from risky assets, including the ruble, naturally, is another risk for the ruble. Oil price in rubles has already been higher than the winter figures.

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  Mikhail Khazin president of NEOKON expert consulting company

  I don't have any foundation to agree or not; an unknown analyst of quite a questionable economic banking forecast concerning its quality. I'm absolutely unsure whether there is a point of commenting this message.

  I cannot foretell the policy of Central Bank. No one can do it. Other factors of the change of the ruble rate except the policy of Central Bank doesn't play any role. All factors would make a sense if Central Bank paid attention to them. But it pays attention to some irrational factors from the economic point of view. For instance, they organised a devaluation in December 2014 because got a signal from the IMF that the outflow of the capital from Russia needed to be accelerated. What is more, they were under an illusion that they would be able to stimulate the economic growth by devaluation.

  I will remind we have been experiencing a fall since 2012, and it is irritating the highest political administration very much, and it starts to air its grievances to the Liberals. This is why a result is needed. In the current conditions any economist understands devaluation in itself cannot lead to economic growth. It can be one of the elements of a big and systematic programme. The government doesn't have such a programme, and it's not going to elaborate it. For this reason, devaluation led to nothing but acceleration of the fall.

  On the other hand, there are conspiratorial versions that Central Bank did it following the indications of Obama's representatives. Meanwhile, Obama told the economy would collapse. Evidences were needed. The administration of Central Bank organised these evidences too by Washington's request and accelerated a three-fourfold fall in 2015. There may be an endless number of such arguments, I have not mentioned all of them. It all has nothing to do with a rational economy. It is an analysis of the political expediency at best. And it is not an expediency of the Russian economy only, worst of all, it is a conspiracy.

  I'm saying it once again today I don't see any real foundation to estimate the policy of Central Bank. I don't know the motives of Central Bank's actions, it all is a conjecture. I know only one thing: Central Bank's policy is not appropriate to the economic reality. It cannot foretell the behaviour of Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance.