Working on mistakes: Tatarstan industry is growing faster than Russia’s
In the first months of 2025, Tatarstan's industry has demonstrated more confident growth dynamics than a year ago, and is significantly ahead of the Russian indicators. The industrial production index in the republic for January-February was 105%, in Russia — 101.2%. Furniture production, metallurgy, and the production of rubber and plastic products are growing most dynamically in the region. The production of clothing, finished metal products, and electrical equipment has significantly decreased.
The industrial production index in the processing sector reached 110.9%
In the first two months of 2025, goods and services in industry worth 877 billion rubles were shipped in the republic. For the two months of last year, this figure was 766.3 billion rubles.
The industrial production index (IPI) for the first two months of 2025 was 105%, according to the Tatarstan Statistics Service’s data. At the same time, the industrial production index in manufacturing reached 110.9%. And in the mining sector, production is still falling (95.9%).
In January-February 2025, Tatarstan shipped goods and services to industry worth 877 billion rubles: 659 billion rubles in manufacturing and 162.5 billion rubles in mining.
The main contribution to economic growth is traditionally made by the production of coke and petroleum products (210.6 billion rubles), chemical products and substances (90.7 billion rubles) and the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (60.1 billion rubles). Tatarstan also demonstrates good turnover in the production of food products (56.8 billion rubles), rubber and plastic products (37 billion rubles), computers, electronic and optical products (18.5 billion rubles) and electrical equipment (14.2 billion rubles).
In the first half of 2024, Tatarstan's industry demonstrated weak indicators, in January 2024, the IPP was 100%, in February last year 100.9% — in fact, this meant stagnation of industrial production.
In May 2024, a drop in industrial production was recorded compared to the corresponding month last year. But since autumn, the situation has unexpectedly changed, despite the increase in the key rate, and in September, Tatarstan's industry grew by 13.1% compared to the same period in 2023, in October — by 14.1%, in December — by 12.5%. In total, this made it possible to significantly improve the indicators for the year and achieve an IPP of 105%.
January and February 2025 turned out to be more successful for Tatarstan's industry than the same months last year: the industrial production index in January 2025 was 104.9%, and in February 2025 — 105.6%.
The best growth rates at the beginning of the year in Tatarstan were: furniture production (+28.9%), metallurgical production (+28%), production of rubber and plastic products (+26.7%), motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (+19.7%), chemicals and products (+8.5%).
In January-February 2025, a decline occurred in the production of clothing (-33.1%), production of finished metal products (-15.9%), electrical equipment (-14%), textiles (-13.9%) and medicines and materials (-10.9%).
In addition, the production of computers, electronic and optical products (93.8%) and wood processing (90.6%) decreased.
More positive dynamics than a year ago
“If you look at the structure of processing, then among the key industries (more than 5% in the structure of processing), noticeable dynamics were shown by the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (+19.7%) and the production of chemicals and products (+8.5%). At the beginning of 2024, the opening ceremony of the Wagnermaier tarpaulin semi-trailer plant was held at Alabuga Special Economic Zone, which is apparently now reflected in the statistics. In the chemical sector, the dynamics are most likely associated with the expansion of fertilizer production. Among the less significant industries (less than 5% in the processing structure), one can highlight the production of rubber and plastic products (+26.7%), metallurgical production (+28%) and furniture production (+28.9%),” the expert commented.
On average, the dynamics of industrial production in Russia for January-February 2025 is more modest than in Tatarstan (+1.2% compared to January-February 2024 versus 5%). Industrial production is restrained by a decline in the extractive sector (-3.5%) and the provision of electricity, gas and steam; air conditioning (-4.8%). The decline in the extractive sector is due to trends in oil and gas production. At the same time, processing (+5%) remains the driver of industrial sector growth.
In the structure of the manufacturing sector, the most noticeable growth rates are observed in the production of finished metal products, except for machinery and equipment (+27.1%) and the production of other vehicles and equipment (+35%). The first sector includes not only civilian products, but also products related to the military-industrial complex and import substitution. The dynamics of the second sector are determined, among other things, by support for the production of key products in the aircraft industry, shipbuilding, and railway equipment, as well as the presence of state defence orders, explains Bukharsky.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2025-2027, the growth of industrial production in Russia in 2025 under the baseline scenario will be +2% compared to 2024, which is lower than the rates established by the end of 2024 (+4.6%).
Tatarstan in the top five strongest regions of the Volga Federal District in terms of industrial production dynamics
The leaders in industrial production growth in the Volga Federal District were the Udmurt Republic (112.7%), the Ulyanovsk Region (107.3%) and the Chuvash Republic (106.6%), noted economist and head of the R-Invest company Rustem Shayakhmetov. Tatarstan took fifth place in the district with an index of 105%, while Bashkortostan recorded a decline of 98.3%.
In Bashkortostan, according to him, the situation is somewhat different: mineral extraction increased by 0.9%, while the volume of manufacturing decreased by 1.7%.
“It should be expected that this year the growth rate of industrial production in Russia will not exceed 2%, and in manufacturing — 2.5-3%. Taking into account the negative foreign economic factors, in particular the escalating global trade war, a decrease in mineral extraction is expected. Although, if a reasonable agreement is reached on foreign trade duties, then world markets will revive, which will have a beneficial effect on the volume of trade in energy resources. But this is still an unlikely scenario,” the economist predicts.
A decline in a number of industries cannot be ruled out
Also, such dynamics could be influenced by various support measures from the state and the republic, in particular the provision of benefits and government purchases of products.
In January — February 2025, the production of vehicles and equipment in Russia increased by 35%; finished metal products by 27.1%; chemicals and chemical products by 4.4%. However, the Russian Statistics Service also recorded a decrease in production in a number of industries in January — February 2025, for example, the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers decreased by 7.7%; the production of metallurgical products decreased by 3.2%, Baranov lists.
“It is impossible to say that the country's entire industry will only grow in 2025, the situation will be multidirectional: some industries will increase production, while some industries will reduce output. The situation will depend on demand both on the domestic and foreign markets. It will also depend on macroeconomic factors, changes in exchange rates, measures to regulate the economy as a whole and specific industries,” the analyst explains.
