Betting on unwanted children
Tatarstan includes the fight against abortions among the priorities of a birth rate increase programme
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The Tatarstan government has lowered its expectations for the birth rate increase programme adopted a year and a half ago. It has amended it, according to which a baby boom is not expected in the region for at least another five years. In the new version of the programme, the republic's authorities have secured the fight against abortions as one of the priority areas, hoping that as a result, at least 40% of women will abandon their intention to terminate a pregnancy. At the same time, the regional government has changed its mind about increasing efforts in “assisted reproductive technologies,” despite the fact that the waiting list for IVF in Tatarstan exceeds 2,500 people. Thus, as Realnoe Vremya has found out, the focus is not on growing “test tube babies” but on “bringing” pregnancies in women who did not want them to reality.
Authorities have lowered their expectations for an increase in the number of newborns
The Tatarstan government has amended a regional birth rate programme approved in July 2023 and designed to last until 2025. It extended its validity until 2027 adjusting the target indicators and the directions for achieving them.
Thus, the authorities have lowered their expectations for an increase in the number of newborns. Previously, it was assumed that, thanks in part to the efforts of officials, almost 35.2 thousand children would be born in 2025 — 1,700 more than in the previous year. Now such an increase in babies is not predicted even by the end of the current decade: in 2025, according to updated plans, only 34,300 people will be born, followed by a further decline in the birth rate, and only in 2029 will the number of newborns barely exceed 34,000, and in 2030 it will reach 34,400 people.
It should be reminded that the need for the program arose due to the fact that since 2019, Tatarstan has been experiencing a natural population decline, and the birth rate has been declining since 2016, when a record number of children were born — almost 55,600. In 2022, on the eve of the adoption of the program, only less than 36,700 babies were born in the republic. The decrease is associated with the fact that the small generations of the 1990s have reached childbearing age.
In the new version of the programme, the directions for increasing the birth rate are outlined as follows:
- Strengthening reproductive health and reducing the number of abortions.
- Support for families with children.
- Support for families with children living in rural areas.
- Creating conditions for the successful combination of raising children and receiving education, professional fulfilment.
- Formation of a family-oriented infrastructure and providing support to families in improving their housing conditions.
- Strengthening the institution of the family, including multi-generational, protection, preservation and promotion of traditional Russian spiritual, moral and family values, and family lifestyle in society.
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Previously, the first point, along with strengthening reproductive health, was the “use of assisted reproductive technologies,” which primarily refers to in vitro fertilization (IVF) methods. Reducing the number of abortions was not among the main areas of the program. Now the authorities plan to increase “bringing to birth” from 70% to 75% of “those who applied for pregnancy” by 2027, expecting that at least 40% of those planning an abortion will ultimately refuse it.
According to officials' plans, the number of abortions in Tatarstan should decrease to 8.7 per 1,000 women of childbearing age (before the programme was adopted in 2022, there were 13 abortions per 1,000 women in the region). For this purpose, in particular, it is proposed to increase the “coverage of pre-abortion counselling by psychologists” to 98.2% of women wishing to terminate a pregnancy.
Rustam Minnikhanov: “I am very unhappy with the demographic situation!”
Last year February, during a visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Kazan, Governor of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov said when disclosing the demographic situation in the region that “childbirth is being postponed and postponed” due to “other value systems” — “education, post-education, obtaining additional knowledge.” He assured that officials would be able to “persuade women” to have more children.
Last year, the right to perform abortions in the republic was left only to state clinics, which were required to first refer patients to specially created crisis pregnancy centres. Tatarstan Health Minister Marcel Minnullin said that they help women “doubt their firm decision to terminate a pregnancy” by showing “the fingers and toes” of the future child. It was reported that after such consultations in January-November 2024, one in two women (57.2%) refused an abortion.
This fact will probably affect the results of 2025. According to the results of 2024, the regional authorities stated: more than 35,500 children were born, which is 3.3% less than the year before.
“Do you know that this year we have given birth to 20,000 fewer children than 8-10 years ago? Then there were 56,000, and now 3,000. You are also to blame for the demographic decline, you do not give birth. Tell us what is needed, we are ready to fulfil any whim. In fact, we work very poorly, we do not convince our women well. This is a big question, and this is not a joke, I am very dissatisfied with the demographic situation!” Rustam Minnikhanov expressed dissatisfaction at a press conference on the results of 2024.
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The governor of Tatarstan raised the same topic at the final board meeting of the Ministry of Health.
“If the trend continues, the situation will be very difficult,” Rustam Minnikhanov warned. “Given the above, we need to conduct a detailed analysis. We talk about demography all the time, but we do not make any serious decisions. We are already receiving maternity capital and everything else that we have. But we need some other decisions that could seriously change the situation. In this direction, we definitely need to prepare a program this year.”
IVF excluded from priorities of birth rate increase programme
According to research that preceded the birth rate increase programme, in Tatarstan, abortion is mostly sought by women who already have at least two children, who are experiencing financial difficulties and living in cramped conditions. Officials hope to persuade them to have at least one more child by promising social support — subsidies for housing and communal services and compensation for kindergarten fees, which low-income families with many children can count on, annual assistance in the amount of 10,000 rubles for medicines, a one-time payment of 100,000 rubles for families with five children and 200,000 rubles for families with seven. The authorities are especially trying to stimulate mothers in rural areas: upon the birth of their first child, they are given 50,000 rubles, and 100,000 rubles for their third and subsequent children. Officials believe that it is rural women who can influence the total fertility rate (the average number of births per woman in Tatarstan is 1.57).
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Meanwhile, more than 2,500 infertile women in Tatarstan are waiting in line for IVF, eager to become mothers. Eight private clinics in the region carry out procedures under the compulsory medical insurance. Waiting periods range from six months to nine months. In 2022, over 800 children were born as a result of such “assisted reproductive technology”. The previous program assumed that the number of IVF procedures in the region would grow: more than 1,400 cycles would be performed in 2024, and more than 1,500 in 2025. However, in the new version, officials abandoned such intentions, deciding to conduct no more than 1,420 procedures per year at the expense of the budget, and excluded this area from the priorities of the birth rate increase programme.
The adjustment of plans and approaches may be due to the fact that the total fertility rate in November last year was included in the list of indicators for assessing the activities of senior officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation by decree of the President of the Russian Federation. This parameter is third out of 21 on the list — after the level of trust in the Russian government and the population of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Reports on the results of 2024 must be submitted to Vladimir Putin by 1 February.
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