Senior FMBA infectious disease doctor: ‘There is a week to the peak of the epidemic. Everything is to calm down by summer’
Vladimir Nikiforov about the mass hysteria about COVID-19 and if the coronavirus turns into a seasonal disease
“The hysteria is disrupting the collective immune system. There will be suicide, divorce, domestic homicide, fights, violence amid this hysteria. Most importantly, the medicine — quarantine — shouldn’t become worse than the disease — this is what I am opposing. As soon as you turn on the television, the only thing heard is about the bloody virus. Instead of saying: “The incidence in Italy has reduced by such-and-such number today”, indicating how many recovered people were released from the hospital, the screen is screaming: “Another 20, 40, 100 people have died”. This is wrong!” senior infectious disease doctor of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency, head of the Department of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology of the Pirogov Medical University, Professor, Doctor of Medical Sciences Vladimir Nikiforov is convinced. In a short interview with Realnoe Vremya, he told us about the margin of error when counting victims of the coronavirus in Italy and why the medicine — quarantine — can be worse than the disease itself.
“The death from coronavirus in Italy is attributed to everybody left, right and centre”
Mr Nikiforov, at first, after the information about the new coronavirus appeared, as I understood, you didn’t expect such a post-apocalyptic outcome. Is it true?
Not the event but the hysteria was the case. Frankly speaking, the medical component doesn’t comply with the hysteria about it. Actually, I haven’t seen a catastrophe and global threat to humankind. Coronavirus is really quite a severe acute respiratory infection. But we certainly shouldn’t dramatise and think that life has ended and we all are going to die from this infection.
Does it mean that the seriousness of the measures taken isn’t reasonable?
The measures are really reasonable to a certain degree. But what’s happening around it, such created hysteria isn’t certainly reasonable. There used to be worse epidemics, even the same flu.
Even if we look at the allegedly high death toll of the elderly in Italy, we can see that death from coronavirus is attributed to everybody left, right and centre. It doesn’t matter there that the person had, for instance, decompensated liver cirrhosis and a lot of other diagnoses. They think that if he died and tested positive for coronavirus, it means he died from coronavirus. In fact, the death toll in the same Italy is 10 times lower than the numbers provided.
Frankly speaking, the medical component doesn’t comply with the hysteria about it. Actually I haven’t seen a catastrophe and global threat to humankind
“20,000-30,000 people die from pneumonia ‘in silence’ in hospitals every year”
Who benefits from creating such hysteria and panic?
I don’t know, but somebody certainly benefits from it. Again, the coronavirus isn’t the epidemic to throw tantrums and shout: “The bloody virus is marching across the planet”. People are being scared, suffering a nervous breakdown, developing a neurosis. How can it be a bloody virus? According to official data only in Russia, there are 700,000 cases of pneumonia out of hospital a year. The mortality rate is about 2-3%. It means that around 20,000-30,000 people die from pneumonia “in silence” in hospitals every year. About 30 people have died from the coronavirus in Russia, while there has been created such hysteria as if we have piles of corpses in the street. The problem exists, but it shouldn’t be presented this way. And, by the way, nobody has cancelled the H1N1 flu this year, people also die from it…
What is done now by the government is normal and correct. But the hysteria in the mass media is confusing the people. People are afraid, moreover, not only in our country. It isn’t us who began such a clamour.
People can be understood, they fear that if the epidemic begins, there won’t be enough room, equipment and medical staff for them in hospital.
This is what I am saying: everything is done not to have problems. Additional beds are put up, ventilators are purchased. There is still time for it. But the hysteria continues to be created. I am not belittling that people are falling ill and dying. But the hysteria is disrupting the collective immune system. There will be suicide, divorce, domestic homicide, fights, violence amid this hysteria. Most importantly, the medicine — quarantine — shouldn’t become worse than the disease — this is what I am opposing.
As soon as you turn on the television, the only thing heard is about the bloody virus. Instead of saying: “The incidence in Italy has reduced by such-and-such number today”, indicating how many recovered people were released from the hospital, the screen is screaming: “Another 20, 40, 100 people have died”. This is wrong!
About 30 people have died from the coronavirus in Russia, while there has been created such hysteria as if we have piles of corpses in the street. The problem exists, but it shouldn’t be presented this way. And, by the way, nobody has cancelled the H1N1 flu this year, people also die from it…
“If there had been 400 patients a day in the ICU, on artificial respiration, I would have been afraid then…”
Do you think that Russia will be able to avoid the Italian scenario?
A rise in 400 and even 700 patients isn’t a big number, while it is hyped so much. And if today there are two patients, and tomorrow there will be four, there would be a twofold growth. And if yesterday there were two and today six, roughly speaking, there would be a threefold rise in general. There have been 400 people more. Who are these 400 people? Tests for coronavirus have begun in Russia at every turn, and everybody has rushed to do this test. I mean better diagnostic too explains the rise. If there weren’t test systems, there would be fewer detected cases. If there had been 400 patients a day in the ICU, with artificial respiration, I would have been afraid then…
I would really want Russia to avoid the Italian scenario, though I am a pessimist. But as an ancient eastern saying puts it, “Think of nice things, and everything will be fine”. I am also as pessimist as one is in the saying: “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst”. And here I am afraid to put a hex. In this respect, Russia is preparing for a worse scenario correctly. God willing this will be unnecessary.
Some specialists claim that the new coronavirus won’t leave humankind anymore. Do you think that COVID-19 will become an annual seasonal disease?
What can we do if it doesn’t leave? It can turn into a seasonal disease. We will make a vaccine in 11 months and administer injections like against the flu. The new coronavirus can go too or be one of those four seasonal coronaviruses that cause a mild acute respiratory infection a couple of times a year, and nothing awful happens to us.
The new coronavirus can go too or be one of those four seasonal coronaviruses that cause a mild acute respiratory infection a couple of times a year, and nothing awful happens to us
Don’t you think the fact that the coronavirus mutates will make the creation of vaccine more complicated?
It doesn’t mutate that much.
Hasn’t the peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia passed yet?
No, it hasn’t passed. We will reach the summit at least in a week. It can take much more time. But everything is to calm down by summer.