Realnoe Vremya analytics: what will Tatarstan citizens drive in 2023?
Residents of the republic will change cars less often and will start saving on their maintenance and repair
The fleet of passenger cars in Tatarstan is going to shrink and get older. So far, the republic holds the lead in the ranking of regions with the youngest fleet, second only to Moscow. The reason for the love of Tatarstan residents for new cars, the average age of cars in the region, and how sanctions are affecting the consumer behaviour of Russians — read in the review by the analytical service of Realnoe Vremya.
According to Autostat Info agency, 1,31 million passenger cars (1,314,929 units) were registered in Tatarstan in the first half of 2022. Over the year, the fleet of passenger cars in the republic has decreased by 0,4%. At the end of the first half of 2021, there were 1,32 million passenger cars (1,320,451 units) in the region. Foreign cars predominate in the fleet — they account for 58,5% (769,1 thousand cars), Russian-made cars — 41,5% (545,8 thousand cars).
The reduction of the fleet in the republic is due to a decline in the number of registered Russian cars (their number has decreased by 1,2% from last year's mark of 552,4 thousand units), explains the press service of Autostat Info. The segment of foreign cars, on the contrary, has shown a slight increase from last year's figure — 768,1 thousand units.
In the first three quarters of 2022, 16,776 passenger cars were sold on the Tatarstan market. The sales structure is traditionally dominated by cars with gasoline engines (15,717 units). In 9 months of 2022, only 900 diesel cars and 38 “clean” electric vehicles were sold.
Moscow remains the largest regional market in the country, where 75,2 thousand new cars were sold from January to September, which is by 55% less than the same result in 2021. The second place in this rating belongs to Moscow Oblast, the indicator of which is 40,3 thousand units (-61,3%). These two regions account for about a quarter of the entire new car market in the country.
The increase in car prices, the decline in purchasing activity of the population, and the general alarming background will contribute to a decrease in the registered fleet of passenger cars in the whole country, the press service of Autostat Info forecasts.
Today, 43,7 million passenger cars are registered in Russia. According to various estimates, the sales of new cars will not exceed 600 thousand in 2022. This will lead to that the registered fleet will not receive a significant amount of cars this year. The operated fleet of passenger cars in the country is estimated at 35,5 million cars. Due to that car owners will use their cars longer, the volume of the moving fleet will not be reduced immediately, Autostat Info experts explain. It will get older and begin to decrease noticeably in 3-5 years (by 350-500 thousand cars annually).
The share of Russian and Chinese brands in the volume of sales in the car market will grow. For example, the registration of Lada passenger cars on the market is steadily growing after the sales failure that occurred from March to April, when the volume of cars sold decreased from 17,268 to 6,465 units. Already in May, 6,709 Lada cars were sold, in June — 7,961 units, in July — 10,467 units, in August — 15,722 cars, and in September — 17,965 units.
According to the results of the three quarters of 2022, the share of Russian brands in sales in the Russian car market amounted to 26,17% (122,818 cars were sold in the first 9 months of 2022). The share of Chinese brands in the total car market is 14,26% (66,953 units sold). According to this indicator, the “Chinese” are still lagging behind Korean brands, which sold 107,212 cars in January-September of this year and took a share of 22,84%.
However, the growth of the share of Russian brands has objective limitations — AvtoVAZ cannot constantly increase its share in the car market due to production restrictions. The hopes that many experts associated with Chinese brands and their active expansion into the Russian car market have not yet been justified, the press service of Autostat Info says. Their sales are growing: for example, from August to September, the growth was +96% — from 6,259 to 12,264 units. But this growth is not explosive, although it sets a long-term trend.
Tatarstan ranks seventh in the number of passenger cars among the regions of Russia
According to Autostat Info, the largest fleet of cars today is in Moscow (almost 4 million cars), the second is in Moscow Oblast (2,7 million cars), Krasnodar Krai is the third (1,9 million cars). Tatarstan is the seventh, it is slightly ahead of Bashkortostan, where 1,29 million cars are registered, and Samara Oblast, where 1,05 million cars are registered.
The average age of a car in Tatarstan is 10,6 years
In 2019, Tatarstan was the region with the youngest fleet: the average age of passenger cars registered here, according to the analytical agency AUTOSTAT, was 10 years. By this indicator, the republic has overtaken even the capital, where the average age of the car was estimated at 10,4 years. But since 2020, the fleet of Tatarstan has begun to age, and Moscow has become the first.
The average age of passenger cars in Russia today is 14 years. But in most regions of Russia, the fleet is older than the national average. The oldest cars are registered in the Far East. In seven regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, the average age of a car exceeds 20 years. Kamchatka is the leader here (24,4 years).
Tatarstan is in the top for car loans
The “young” fleet of Tatarstan can partly be explained by the love of the inhabitants of the republic for car loans. According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), the largest number of car loans in the regions of the Russian Federation in September 2022 were issued in Moscow (3,26 thousand), Moscow Oblast (2,95 thousand), St. Petersburg (2,66 thousand), as well as in the Republic of Tatarstan (2,58 thousand) and Krasnodar Krai (2,34 thousand).
However, against the background of general anxiety, Russians have begun to take out fewer car loans. The number of car loans issued in September 2022 decreased by 7,3% compared to the previous month and amounted to 52,7 thousand (in August 2022 — 56,9 thousand). Compared to the same period last year, it decreased even more significantly — by 37,1% (in September 2021 — 83,8 thousand). Compared with the “pre-sanctions” February — by 27,3% (in February 2022 — 72,6 thousand). This trend will continue, experts are convinced.
“And we also have very good roads, it's not a pity to drive expensive cars”
Tatarstan