Realnoe Vremya’s analytics: consumer market out of the peak

Photo: realnoevremya.ru

The Ministry of Economy of Tatarstan forecasts a growth of the consumer market in the republic. Retail trade turnover will grow by 2,4% in comparable prices to the previous year — up to 1,28 trillion rubles. The turnover of public catering will increase by 2% to 57,19 billion rubles, and paid services to the population by 3% to 349,73 billion rubles.

At the same time, unemployment due to the withdrawal of foreign companies from the market, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, will increase by 6,6%, to 16 thousand people, but will not reach the peak indicators of the coronavirus 2020 year. For comparison, at the end of August this year, the number of official unemployed amounted to 10,3 thousand people, and in August 2020 — 79,1 thousand people.

Solvent demand will also begin to recover in 2023. If real wages in Tatarstan in 2022, according to the department's estimates, will fall by 5,3% compared to the previous year, then in 2023 real incomes of the population will grow by 2% compared to the previous year.

“It won't be worse than in 2022"

The difficulties faced by the consumer market in 2022 are unprecedented: these are the destruction of logistics chains, the need to quickly find new suppliers, inflation, and a decrease in purchasing power. According to the forecasts of Infoline agency, the turnover of the Russian retail market will decrease by 7-8% in 2022. The Association of Retail Companies (ACORT), which unites the largest retailers — X5 Retail Group, Magnit, Lenta, OK, Detsky Mir, M.Video, Eldorado and others, believes that the drop will be 8-9%.

Retail trade turnover in Tatarstan fell by 2,5% to 790,5 billion rubles for 8 months of 2022. The turnover of bars, cafes and restaurants amounted to 33 billion rubles and even showed a slight increase (0,2%), but mainly due to price increases, for 8 months of 2022. However, with the beginning of mobilisation, the revenue of Russian catering, according to the estimates of restaurateurs, decreased by 10-30%.

According to the telegram channel “Svobodnaya Kassa”, the mobilisation has seriously hit not only catering. The bookstores' turnover fell the most in a week from September 21 to 27 (-23%). The number of checks there has decreased by 17%, and the average check — by 7%. At stationery stores, a drop in turnover is 17%, the number of checks — 15%, average check — 2%. In the jewelry segment, turnover has decreased by 12%, in furniture segment — by 11%. The average check increased only among sports retailers (+11%).

Retail chains have built new logistics chains

ACORT confirmed to Realnoe Vremya that they expect the retail market to grow in 2023 and are guided by the assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, which forecasts a return of retail trade turnover in 2023 to growth — by 2,7%.

Basis for increasing the market's resilience to the sanctions crisis, according to the Association, have already been laid this year: retail chains have managed to build new logistics chains, active work is underway to expand the assortment at the expense of new markets of the EAEU countries, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. The dynamics of the market in 2023 will be influenced by inflation, consumer activity and general event background, but the foundation for ensuring consumer demand has already been created.

However, not all experts share this “cautious optimism”. In conditions of falling real incomes and inflation, the population will postpone expensive purchases, buy less non-food products, including clothes and gadgets, and will probably switch to a lower price segment. The service sector — restaurants, beauty salons and fitness centres — will suffer the most.

“People will prefer maximum savings on secondary things”